IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR – PART 8 – THE GOAT AND THE DOG AND FOUR CUNNING THIEVES AK, NK, LALU, SONIA

IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR – PART 8 – THE GOAT AND THE DOG AND FOUR CUNNING THIEVES 

AK, NK, LALU, SONIA

I never hated politics and I never hated politicians. I am not a politician. I was a graduate, a clerk, an officer, a second line Manager, Manager of very big branches of a Bank, failed in the profession, was hounded out and took up writing as vocation and never expected any returns. But, my interest in politics dated back to 1964, when Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru died and I could still remember discussing in a street corner about the successor. I was too young. Indira Gandhi was our guess but Shastry took over. From then on, my second interest was politics. I rubbed shoulders with many politicians, among them MLAs, MPs and Ministers and through them I rubbed shoulders with Senior IAS Officers and IPS officers throughout. For the past six-seven years only I am keeping myself aloof. But, the ocean of learning politics is still vast in front of me as it is a science that few can master. Sometimes, I wonder youth being carried away by false propaganda and expressing extreme views on politics, politicians and policies. So, today I told one young friend that I might be a moron not able to understand the intricacies of politics as present day youth could. I also told another friend that politics can never be one-way traffic. It is two- way traffic on an eight lane freeway where motorists change gears, switch lanes, speed up, slow down, pay tolls, commit accidents and if they reach home safely, life goes on.

I mock many politicians in my blogs. I attack them freely. I take objection to their way of dealing with governance aspects. In my heart, I know I can never enter their shoes. They are connoisseurs in their fields. So, I still respect them as professionals. But, I analyse them keenly, change my opinions as per change in their political philosophy and try to help something changes somewhere. Today, I am going to keenly contest, criticize, analyse and if possible advise Nitish Kumar and say why I started hating him so suddenly. It is not that I love Modi policies too much that I started hating this man. I do not criticize many politicos who have not allied with Modi’s NDA. But, in a nut-shell, I see the likes of Arvind Kejriwal and Nitish Kumar more dangerous than all the Congress Politicians put together to the body politic, even Lalu by any standard. I will explain.

During 2004-05, I visited Tiruvananthapuram and from there went to Kanyakumari. We were viewing the Sun setting on the ocean, where Dr.Raghuveer Prasad Singh, RJD, was also present. I recognized him. He took interest in me and started a conversation. It might be because I was explaining to my wife about the whole place, laced with my usual humour.  She and my daughter were smiling all the time. He asked me to tell details in English. I told him. Then, I talked to him about Bihar and Lalu. He was highly appreciative of Lalu’s down-to-earth approach and his family values, his love of the down-trodden and many positive traits. I asked him the inconvenient question, “Why is Bihar, so underdeveloped and still going back under him?” He smiled and replied, “Politics is complicated”. Later, he met me in two other temples on way back to Trivendrum and we talked again. I found in him a statesman, freely talking to a stranger and discussing intricacies of politics and the hard way one could climb the ladder. So far, it was so good.

Today, he is almost leading an ultimate revolt on Lalu for aligning with Nitish and surrendering the party interests to that selfish politician. We have to wait whether the party vertically splits with the think-tank on one side and the already “drowned-in-the-tank” on the other.  This is the tip of iceberg in the emerging political scenario in Bihar, with caste taking back seat and other issues coming to the fore.

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Now, consider politics of Modi and Nitish. Gandhi Jee said, “Ends should justify means but means should not justify ends.”  If we go back to May, 2014 elections, we could take two classic cases of alliances. Modi was very close to J. Jayalalita as they share some common political views. By a simple logic, he could have convinced JJ to accept BJP as a junior ally with two-three seats and he could have had AIADMK, lock, stock and barrel as part of NDA. He did not. The reason was a case was pending against her in the disproportionate assets issue. If she were found guilty, Modi would have been on the wrong side of fighting corruption. Now, she is cleared, though an appeal is pending in SC. But, the HC judgment gave enough indication that the case was not so strong. So, now he sent feelers to her to come on board.

Second case was AP. BJP Telangana opposed any truck with Naidu in AP and TG. There were strong protests from leaders and cadres. Instead, they preferred TRS or YSRCP. In AP too, there were rumblings from the cadre. Argument on the ground was that both Naidu and Jagan were equally placed and Jagan had an edge if BJP did not align with TDP. (I was doing TDP work at that time, as I liked Naidu personally). An internal survey of TDP predicted 119 seats to YSRCP at one stage. Internal surveys are more reliable than opinion polls as they come from committed cadres. There was pressure on Naidu from his leaders and cadres too, not ally with BJP. BJP had a core vote base of 3%. If TDP did not ally with BJP, this vote would have been dormant, would not have gone to YSRCP. And the vote difference between these two parties TDP and YSRCP was less than 3% ultimately. But, Naidu played all tricks in the trade, to keep BJP on tenterhooks till the last second and extracted his pound of flesh. At one stage both the local and Central leadership f BJP advised Modi and Co., to align with YSRCP. Modi did not yield. For him means should justify ends. He was “incorruptible”. He sent a message that all BJP leaders and cadres should ensure corruption was minimised. (It cannot be eradicated). How could he have allied with Jagan on whom charges were piling up by the day? So, Modi took the risky decision of going with the TDP. TDP expected a hung house and the usual bargaining position as a coalition partner. It did not happen. Naidu should have controlled his cadres on the issues pending with the Centre. Instead his ambivalent stand on many issues made him a fodder for opposition and today his opponents, including the dying Congress got a breath of life. He lost his Midas’ touch. May be love for his son might have driven him to this stage. The party that fought dynasty could not be seen encouraging dynasty and that was what was happening in AP as of now. Hope, with his political acumen Naidu will regain the lost glory of the party. I know from the BJP thinking that the party will not make all out efforts to grow either in TN or in AP, until their natural, reliable allies are in place. Any arguments to the contrary will be specious and not based on ground reality. This is Modi way of “Means justify ends”. (I had to drift here from main issue because I have to be clear in my views as a committed BJP cadre, still on board with TDP)

Now, let us consider the case of Nitish. Way back in 2013, he distanced himself from Modi out of sheer arrogance and jealousy. He compared his development model with that of Modi. He said the war was between Gujarati arrogance and Bihari pride. He returned the cheque of Rs.5.00 crore offered as aid to the state. He went alone in the polls, as he did not want to ally with Lalu, whom he accused of jungle raj. Nor, he did want Congress on board as he accused the party of massive corruption. He failed miserably at the hustings. Neither his development mantra, nor his caste equations helped him. His vote share dropped to the same as in February, 2005. So, his core vote share is 16% maximum and people did not believe in his development of the state. Even now, they consider Modi as the real Messiah of development.

So, now, he hugged Lalu. He hugged Congress. To compensate for the sins of aligning with a convicted criminal and proven corrupt party, he hugged the liar Kejriwal who wears a mask of honesty and Good Samaritan. He was exposed on both counts. He started appointing all his cronies in important positions. He simply threw out the few honest people. Since past two months, three of his MLAs have been arrested for corruption and criminality. A lady MLA attacked a sweet shop that was caught on camera. Two senior MLAs are facing harassment charges from spouses out of which one is lady MLA. Instead of hugging an honest gentleman, Nitish hugged a criminally inclined, corrupt politician and pathological liar. For him ends justify means. AK says he will not share stage with Lalu. He will share stage with Sonia. Is it not double standard?  For, even to AK,ends justify means.

The idea of Nitish is ominous for the state. He wants caste votes from Lalu, but does not want him. He wants the 5% of Congress share but does not want to be close to them. So, he chose AK as a mask. This mask is already torn and the real face is out. He wants to rule the state sans crime, sans corruption, sans hypocrisy and develop the state. For this he has a convicted criminal, a proven corrupt party and a pathological liar who has done nothing to develop his domain municipality. This is like solving the zig-saw puzzle. But analysts still give him thumbs up. For these guys too ends justify means. Defeat Modi, we could rule through Satan again, seems to be the motto! Sans corruption at high places many honchos in Media feel suffocated for fear of losing their clout with the powers-that-be. Unless Modi is weakened, these Draculas cannot suck the blood of innocents.  This is all in the game. As a Post Graduate in Journalism, I know how Media should behave and how it is behaving now. They are following unscrupulous and unacceptable practices.

I have a story here.

Two friends wanted to spend the evening happily. One suggested that they go to a Temple where a Guru was teaching moral values. The other suggested that they go to a dancing girl show. Both departed. After few days, they both died at the same time. The man in the Temple was going to hell and the one with dancing girl to Heaven. The man who was in Temple protested. Then the God’s men replied, “You were in Temple, but your thoughts were on the pleasure your friend was enjoying. Your friend was on the wrong side but was thinking what new morals you were learning and what he missed. God judges correctly”

Here the two friends are the multiple personality of Nitish, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Now, part of him will go to Heaven and part to hell. He was physically with BJP and in love with Lalu. He is now physically with Congress, Lalu, AK but wears a mask of non-corruption, no-criminality and no lies. Politics may be the last resort of a scoundrel but even a scoundrel may be useful to the society in one way or other. But not a Nitish or an Arvind Kejriwal. They are bugs out to squeeze blood. Already Nitish is squeezing it in the name of DNA samples of Bihar.

I will tell a small story to end this on humorous note.



                                  Heavenly Justice

Once, there was a preacher who was an avid golfer. Every chance he could get, he would be on the golf course swinging away. It was an obsession. One Sunday was a picture-perfect day for golfing. The sun was out, no clouds were in the sky, and the temperature was just right. 
The preacher was in a quandary as to what to do, and shortly, the urge to play golf overcame him. He called an assistant to tell him that he was sick and could not do church, packed the car up, and drove three hours to a golf course where no one would recognize him. Happily, he began to play the course.
An angel up above was watching the preacher and was quite perturbed. He went to God and said, "Look at the preacher. He should be punished for what he is doing." 
God nodded in agreement. The preacher teed up on the first hole. He swung at the ball, and it sailed effortlessly through the air and landed right in the cup 250 yards away. A picture-perfect hole-in-one. He was amazed and excited. 
The angel was a little shocked. He turned to God andsaid, "I beg your pardon, but I thought you were going to punish him." 

God smiled. "Think about it-who can he tell?" 

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Like the Priest in the story, Nitish is trying to play the cat drinking milk closing its eyes. But even if he hits the 250 yards, whom will he tell that his win is on moral grounds, with Lalu on one shoulder and Congress on the other and AK occupying his whole body like a virus? But, ground situation is different. God will punish him another way. The Golf Ball will revert back and hit him on his forehead so that he never recovers politically.

Nitish Kumar cannot prove that the goat the Bihari pride is carrying is a dog and try to steal it, with three other cunning masters to support him. Biharis turned cleverer by the day and May, 2014 proved it and November 2015 will prove it. Voters in MP and Rajasthan have proved that those who cost the country lakhs of crores and boast on their clean politics will be shown the door.

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NEXT BLOG: THE MANY TROJAN HORSES IN NITISH CAMP AND THEIR REAL INTENTIONS IN ALIGNING WITH HIM AND HUGGING HIM.

SARVEY JANAHA SUKHINO BHAVANTHU

IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR - PART 7 NEMESIS NITISH

As we move to the seventh and concluding part of the blog series, "It is Modi All The Way in Bihar", positive trends are emerging from there. The few BJP leaders I have had personal interaction with, confirmed it is, in fact, very encouraging on the ground with Modi rocking and Nitish-Lalu-Congress Pariwar cracking. Pawar has his own issues, with many of his leaders being charge-sheeted, arrested and being investigated in various scams. If he finally decides to join the gang as number four, it will be Gang of Four out of which only Nitish can not be accused of corruption.

But recent statistics on crime released by the Bihar Police Web-Site indicate that Nitish has started ignoring governance after he has come out of NDA and the crime graph is slowly on upward swing. This is fodder for NDA campaign that joining hands with Lalu will only worsen the situation and as I have always said youth are thinking and not following diktats of caste leaders. They have bread and butter, they want better living and as I have said 58% of Bihar population are below 30 years of age., There is silence from Pshephologists and Media about the outcome in Bihar. They are in shock at the way Modi is drawing huge crowds. The crowds at a government function in Ara, that has consisted mostly of youth and the response Modi has got there is the final nail in the coffin of these apologists.

So, Media started accepting grudgingly that it would be advantage NDA on ground. They do not castigate Nitish for joining hands with Lalu, the convict or Congress, the corrupt. No! They want to take shelter under Modi's announcement of Rs.1.25 lakh crore package and call it a bait or bribe. This is hypocrisy. As I said earlier, the situation turned in favour of NDA soon after Pariwar was cobbled together by MSY who eyed Nitish as a competitor in the national scene. In politics there is no brotherhood that determines the goals of leaders. Defeat of Nitish in Bihar will only help Mulayam, as he will be the only one remaining in the fray in opposition camp, vying for the post with Pawars, Lalus, Jayas etc., facing the heat of charges. Chandrababu is ruled out as he has his own problem of retaining power in AP in 2019, with rivals baying for his blood. MSY played his cards well by pitting Lalu by the side of Nitish and shooting two birds with one shot! It is viam vitae (way of life) in politics.

Second factor that confirmed my analysis was the interview, Mr.Raghuveer Prasad Singh, gave to ABP News. It reported that while talking to them, Mr. Singh, attacked MSY for hurrying the seat sharing and that RJD was eligible for more seats, as JDU was getting the CM post. I wrote that RJD was trying to maim JDU in the state and to occupy their space. This is bellum nervorum ( Battle of Nerves) between the two Mandal, Socialist and Casteist parties, with a secular mask.

Third factor is the entry of Asaduuddin Owaisi into the field. Either he demands his pound of flesh (number of seats they can not concede) from Pariwar in Muslim dominated constituencies or fields his own candidates. The man who tasted first blood in Maharashtra would  not stop there. He knows that Muslims in many states have stopped believing in pseudo secular parties and the two options left for them is to go with "Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikaas", an olive branch offered by Modi or go with a saviour in the form of articulate Owaisi. This is further blow to Pariwar, as slowly people are veering around to the view that only one of these two can save them from poverty and insecurity. The former possibility may take time but the latter possibility seems an immediate relief. So there will be three way division of Muslim vote. Division of votes was a fait accompli even before this battle started.

Fourth factor in favour of NDA is the confusion in the leadership of RJD and JDU. Till now, there is no joint attack on Modi/NDA on a single issue with common factors by the two top leaders. This leads to confusion among rank and  file who do not see eye to eye, even now. And the arrogance of Nitish is reflection of his alter ego that it is either me or destruction of Bihar. It is sending wrong message that even the pliant Media has stopped covering him as a hero. And where is Bihar in their talks. They talk, eat, sleep, dream, wake up with Modi in mind. Does not this hurt the pride of Biharis that they have totally ignored them and are concentrating on a statesman politician that is taking nation to greater heights. Voters think and vote. Politicians should not take voters for granted forever. We are now a global village. Information on other parts is reaching fast. A Lalu or Nitish might not have realised this but the two Modis realised fast.

The fall of JDU from its heights in 2010 to its lows in 2014 was phenomenal. One year or twenty months is too short a period in politics to revive any party when the adversary is very strong and knows the rules of the game like a connoisseur. So, the vote percentage of JDU is certain to slip further as I have already stated in earlier blogs. Further, Nitish antagonized many of his own leaders with his alter ego. Manjhi is the tip of iceberg. As polls near, more will shift loyalty to BJP or LJP. RJD will shrink too or add a few percentage points here and there. But it seems that they too dropped the hat before the battle has begun. It will be either absolute power in the hands of RJD or total surrender before NDA for Lalu to see that he escapes with less punishment. NDA will not compromise on criminals. And, his position is too unsettling as of now. Further, Lalu too distanced from strong Yadav leaders to save his skin from the noose.

Caste equations do not work either in Bihar or UP this time around, as they have worked earlier unless a new, non-controversial face shows up like that of VP Singh in 1990s. It is ruled out. Nitish made it as development oriented poll. Lalu has no agenda of his own. Congress has Rahul as agenda, that is the biggest negative.  So, it is Nitish Versus Modi only with Modi at least 75 points ahead of Nitish out of 100. Game is almost over for Nitish in Bihar this time around. 

Congress is non ens (non-entity) in Indian politics and the undue projection of Rahul as the future leader, has made it a laughing stock. Who will bet on a clown as a  Crown Prince? End of Nanda Dynasty in the hands of a Chanakya and Chandragupta, is in the offing before 2019. And in Bihar, till now, no national leader dared to interfere even in seat-sharing. That shows the position of the party. The less said is the better. Even core voters are shifting as has happened in AP.

One significant statement of Lalu was ignored by Media either by oversight or intentionally. He demanded scrapping of NOTA in Bihar. So, he is nervous that hard core supporters of RJD and JDU who do not want to vote NDA will either abstain or prefer NOTA. He accepted defeat, in a single statement. The demand of Lalu to publish the Caste Census shows his nervousness further. He knows that all the caste voters who have voted these Mandal parties earlier are now a divided lot with BJP  too playing caste card, without as much being branded as a casteist party (it was branded communal and now Owaisi is snatching the card). So, he wants to play the VP Singh Card by bringing all OBCs under an umbrella. It is his nervous reaction to the surge of BJP.

To conclude my series, I will quote what Hindustan Times reported today on Bihar. HT is known to be a Congress paper and an ardent critic of Modi. Most of the columnists that are anti-Modi are given prime space in the pages of Hindustan Times.

This is what, it has  said today. The paper misleads with Head Lines always. Now, it says, "DEVELOPMENT AGENDA DOES THE TRICK TO BJP". They know, with one announcement voters do not change their electoral choice. So, it was in the air for long. They are searching for alibis. Now, they got one.

" Prime Minister Narendra Modi effectively took the poll battle to the opposition camp on Tuesday as he unveiled a package of Rs.1.25 lakh crore  for Bihar, creating a development agenda bigger than what CM Nitish Kumar could have ever hoped for. (A day earlier I tweeted that Modi would be announcing a package of Rs.1.25 lakh crore to Bihar. If my small brain could predict this, sitting in Mumbai as an ordinary member of BJP, why could not these Media Pundits and the CM  anticipate? I made a calculation. He said, "more than Rs 50,000 crore" in the last meeting. I guessed Rs.75,000 crore as the nearest high figure. An additional sum of 56,000 cr. on NH improvement was in the offing. It took the total to Rs.1.256 lakh crore. It was simple arithmetic.)

Further, HT reports

"This move attempted to change political discourse in Bihar ..... to Modi Versus Nitish and justified NDA's decision in not projecting a CM face. By ...... BJP has created immense advantage ahead of the ... poll just for 243 seats. If the development debate (that Nitish started in 2014) is neutralised the NDA is assured of a victory."

This is a confirmation of my earlier and present prediction that BJP on its own will get majority as in 2014 LS Poll and will win 3/4ths of seats easily. But, I too keep my fingers crossed as the is not Astrology, but Astrologic and not Psephology but Psephologic.

BUT HAVE NO DOUBT, IT IS GOING TO BE MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR TOO AND IT IS "NEMESIS NITISH" THIS TIME AROUND.

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VANDE MATARAM SARVE JANAHA SUKHINO BHAVANTHU

IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR PART 4 TO PART 6

The data I will submit in the next blog on Bihar poll  since Febraury, 2005 will be mind boggling and one way not worth blogging. For, I analyse polls on paradigm shift in the thinking of voters rather than the equations that existed before. That happened in 2014 and would most likely repeat in Bihar in 2015. One reason of my confidence is that Nitish has spoiled his and Bihar's DNA,  by his flip flops overtly exhibiting that he is over ambitious like Macbeth and now ably supported by two Ladies of his choice the RJD and the Congress, whose sins cannot be washed away by the gushing waters of Ganga or Brahmaputra. (Ladies Macbeth). 

But the data is useful in analysing the real prospects of these alliances, taken that there is no change in the ground situation after 2010 or 2014. One argument stands good that elections for LS and Asembly differ on issues. But fortunately both Modi and Nitish made it a personal battle of sorts as in LS polls. And N is always after M. L is not considered in the contest as he is on baiL. 

Now, let us make analysis based on ground level facts, not simply on figures.

1. AP Poll in May, 2014: 

To come to some realistic assessment, let us consider AP Polls first. In March, 2014, I met a software giant in Freemont area in a hotel owned by an aspirant for MP ticket from TDP. It was in USA. These two were close to the present CM of AP. In the midst of discussion the MP aspirant asked me , " Are you confident of a TDP victory?". I said yes, if they contest as partners of NDA.My own asessment was 120 seats for NDA, that fell short by a few seats finally.He said an internal survey by the party projected 119 for YSRCP. There was anxiety in TDP cadres. In fact, the same number was sent as DM to me by someone close to an ex-TDP minister. Then I told them you could convince the chief not to leave BJP as  3% vote of BJP is core. 90% of them vote as they are real voters that do not change with winds. And majority fence sitters and swing voters turn to us and we can swing it in our favor. But I expressed skepticism about the surveys. The owner of the software firms told me he was the one who designed the first ever software for a famous psepholgist and was partner in his company for years before he shifted. He said psephology went wrong as they depended on limited sample size and correlated with many past trends.But they come out wrong due to many factors, one being pattern of change and change in issues. With growth in literacy, a voter looks beyond caste and wants more. But party surveys are conducted on the basis of collection of data from sincere workers in large numbers and are more reliable. Both were reluctant welcomers of BJP but both assured to talk to the chief. Later, one of them confirmed he had a long chat and would be in AP to convince him personally. All is well that ends well. It ended well.

My point here is as of now NDA is more confidant with its internal surveys as their partners are the same. Continuity helps. Pariwar is yet a loose combination and none of the leaders is sure who is where in the Chess Board. How can they checkmate the king? Further each leader has a reason of his own to attack Modi and there is no unified opposition. MSY is changing stance each other day. So, there is no possible joint survey and confusion reigns as of now. Hence, NDA has a clear upper hand. A favorable survey of the party gives an edge to them as message goes to fence sitters, swing voters and first time voters. It happened in AP. A quick intetnal survey suggested NDA could outsmart YSRCP and 110 seats was their prediction post alliance but I stood firm on 120 for influencing swing voters at my level. It paid dividends. What was my role there? Nothing, but a sincere change monger at State and Centre. Here too, my role is that. End of Macbeth and his ambition. The two ladies already ended their lives earlier than Macbeth.

2. Delhi Polls:

Most pollsters could not give a sweeping majority to AAP. Congress, shifting vote in toto, was not expected. Congress realised it was not strong anywhere, so shifted vote to defeat BJP. BJP dropped the hat in the middle after internal surveys predicted loss. So, Modi and Shah cleverly appeared that Modi was nowhere in picture and threw the mantle on Ms. Bedi. Modi had a long talk with her before announcing her as BJP face. What transpired, none knew. Local BJP leaders were up in arms and AAP became stronger than ever. If anyone knows Kejri personally, his basic trait is a split personality and before MCD polls, BJP tries to take advantage to cobble together the torn pieces and make a fitting comeback, if they learn a lesson. Here too, psephology went wrong, intetnal surveys helped Modi to withdraw as the face of Delhi polls. The fact is that Modi blew the conch for the upcoming Bihar polls in the first meeting.He is addressing second one close on heels suggests the confidence in NDA camp. Congress is struggling to decide and hence leadership is confined to slogan shouting in Delhi even as party is losing leaders and cadres in droves in states. Do they know the fate awaiting the top duo? Seems so. This is a second point that gives strength to my argument that NDA is on strong wicket. Modi pitching himself as main campaingner adds to my confidence.

3. ISSUES IN LS POLLS VERSUS ASSEMBLY POLLS: 

Nothing changed on ground between LS polls and now. JDU lost heavily in LS polls. RJD too lost. Congress was nowhere. But now, these three have come together. So, the combined vote share must be more than that of NDA. But much water passed under the bridge since LS polls. Lalu is a mellowed man, because he has already been convicted and upper courts turning down the conviction are bleak. Further, there is no way out for him to save face unless one in his family occupies CM chair. Third, the party is well short of funds as none is ready to bet on him, as a convict on bail. Fourth, he does not believe that Nitish, a known adversary, will help him in any way. The relationship continues strained. So, Lalu will try his best to see that the result is fragmented. Veteran of many battles he knows where to hit that hurts Nitish most. If it is hung, he can still hang on as hard bargainer. So, this adds to the comfort zone of NDA.

As far as Congress is concerned, it dropped hat. None of the top leaders visited Bihar nor was there any sign of negotiations with others. The only way is again transferring votes in bulk to Nitish. Congress is wary of Nitish. He is another Modi, that never bends backwards to accomadate corrupt elements. So, RJD will be the best bet. But Lalu is cunning and self oriented. After winning, he may join NDA too, if accomadated. Moreover, the serious indictment of Congress by the Commission of Inquiry on Bhagalpur adds to Congress' discomfiture as it can no longer rake up 2002. With carrying the burden of 1984 Delhi and 1989 Bhagalpur riots, even Nitish  finds it difficult to defend Congress . Unless Nitish turns Dhritarashtra, not seeing anything, he cant solve the riddle. One more point in the kitty of NDA. 

4. NITISH ACTS OF POLITICAL SUICIDE:

By showing his real face vis a vis Modi, Nitish lost heavily in 2014. Without learning a lesson he insulted Jitan Ram Manjhi, who, in a short span carved out a political space for himself. Besides caste votes, he won hearts of middle classes, upper classes, upper castes and youth very cleverly. He projected himself as a martyr. BJP too aapeared aloof to the happenings in JDU and escaped unhurt. Both joined together. This is an additional vote of about 5% in specific constituencies for NDA. Increase in specific constituencies helps in gaining numbers without diluting the vote share. This is electoral arithmetic. Let us discuss in the next part.

5. SPECIAL PACKAGE :

The special package that comes with many benefits will send a message that Modi stands by his word and a clever campaign by NDA and Modi how special packages are better than special status will send positive signals. Modi's modus operendi is to deal with state specific subjects and announce infra and industry suited to each state or area. Power is his top priority and signals from other states where migrants from Bihar live and ruled by BJP will be helpful to build Modi image as a go_getter, who works for people. Even Nitish went on record saying teams of relief and Central Ministers reached and help reached Bihar even before the state woke up to real damage during earth quake time could be used by NDA that Modi would not play politics with opposition ruled states. "Just imagine if at both places, the same government works" will be the message. Huge hoardings with statements of Nitish in this reagard will be of immense help. 

6. MODI'S GOOD GOVERNANCE MODEL: 

Modi's USP is to address the basic problems faced by all sections while pursuing reforms. This is where he caught Congress with sore throats. When LAB amendments were being pursued by Modi government, Congress projected him as anti poor and crony capitalist.  After Modi took the steam out of their campaign by almost agreeing to pass their own bill leaving it to states, Congress is lost for words except saying they have won. But with the fact that many states will pass bills that suit their needs, not different from NDA bill, Congress will have no answer. Either develop or remain backward, will be the message. Now, as they stall reforms, Congress will lose the other part of the war too as they are seen as anti growth. NDA is only bidding for time, as other programs of the government are showing ground result at micro level. Macro level growth takes time to percolate down to voters' level and 2019 is far off. Voters are satisfied that Modi doing something to improve their living conditions. A plus point for NDA. 

7.Modi the strategist: 

Universal Banking, Social Security, using festivals  to spread goodwill message, improvement in roads, removing obsolete laws, Make In India, Fedral spirirt, Skill development to create jobs etc. are taking deep roots in large sections of population.

8. CORRUPTION:

Major issue during LS polls was corruption in high places. During fourteen months' of rule level of political corrpution has drastically come down pan India. Bureaucratic corruption is coming down slowly as many are circumspect of Modi ways. He strikes when one is complacent. Statesmenly. So, bureaucracy is realising the need to appear honest. Low level corruption is difficult to curb and we can only hope. Congress is shouting in the air, as it has neither issues nor tissues to wipe tears or wounds inflicted by NDA.

9. Communalism:

A shadow demon was on display in earlier polls that a BJP and a hardliner Hindu, Modi would divide the nation. To the utter dismay of Congress and allies they are more unified now and country is in safe hands. 

10. Foreign Policy: 

Modi made several moves on foreign policy to help the nation and the world around. Of significance to Bihar is the Bhutan, Nepal agreements, the Bangladesh bonhomie and power generation and supply to Bihar from neighboring nations. 

11. Modi's persona:

Modi still stands tall in the view of majority Indians, as he not only appears sincere but also sincere to the core.

In a nutshell, NDA has a clear edge over any combination with the above and many underlining factors. I will not be surprised if NDA retains the seats it won in 2014.

CONTENTIOUS SEAT SHARING:

Seat distribution is almost complete. There are a few heartburns in the Pariwar camp. One is NCP, not being given its due share. They think they are votaries of Minority interests. Samajwadi Party was not accommodated. Nothing is heard from them. RJD and JDU sharing equal number of seats is, in one way, Lalu realising that both parties have no ground support in the state. It is a climb down for the party as JDU is a party that has less voter support than the RJD.  One way, it can be said that it has depended on BJP grass root support in October, 2010 polls. In May 2014 it suffered the worst humiliation in the poll. RJD kept up its head high though it won only 4 seats. Congress, naturally being the only National Party that took on BJP alliance, retained its share. This might sound an absurd argument, as the total votes polled by these parties together, far exceeded the votes polled by the NDA in the LS polls also. The common assumption is that votes get automatically transferred to   alliance partners on caste basis, religion basis and the good governance basis. It is unrealistic and specious as figures from 2005 February polls prove.

NDA may not face difficulty in sharing seats as they have already attempted a winning combination. Who will sacrifice seats to Manjhi faction and how many Muslim candidates the LJP, Manjhi faction and RSLP will each allot and what will be the percentage of seats BJP gives to the Minority Community plays a crucial factor.  Issue will certainly bog down the seat sharing arrangement in the Pariwar camp, as in most of the seats that they are contesting (200 seats) both parties are almost unequally placed , with RJD certainly ahead of JDU at many places and which party will contest which seat will be  the toughest task.

In contrast, BJP led NDA is equally spread over the state as they nurtured the whole state in the first term of Nitish Kumar and Nitish mostly won on solid support of BJP war strategy and vote share shifting to JDU. Figures again speak here. Additionally, BJP has the strongest leader that did not waver amidst revolt by Nitish and bomb blasts during the last polls. Most of the Biharis living in Maharashtra and Gujarat and now to certain extent in Delhi too (AK flip flops, corrupt netas and goodagiri, he is not able to control, today’s vulgar display of his name for Independence Day is another example), will be added strength of BJP.  Congress lost the little advantage it had in 2014 due to its negative policies. It must be noted Bihar has a very high 58% of voters below 30 years age. (2011 census) and they know their politics well and do not follow traditional voting on the diktats of elders. Presence of large numbers of youth in Modi meetings is a proof of this.

CM CANDIDATE:

An argument is advanced that in the absence of a CM candidate announced early, BJP is at a loss. In all Assembly polls after May, 2014, BJP won without announcing a CM candidate. Only in Delhi, where they made a last minute candidate, they lost. Now, we know whether the argument stands good. And, without saying openly, BJP sent strong signals that SK Modi would lead the government. He is soft spoken, non-controversial, not an egoist like Nitish and a hard worker.

Pariwar announced Nitish as CM candidate. Natural incumbency will be there on a CM who has worked for ten years. And Nitish failed to cash in any pro-incumbency for him by his foolish acts. The first act was his distancing from NDA, with whose support only he could face UPA government’s discrimination and developed the state. Now, Bihar is feeling the pinch, as the governments who are in the opposition but have not opposed Modi personally are reaping benefits whereas Nitish is standing on his ego. Second blunder was not preventing bomb blasts in Modi meeting. It sent wrong signals, though he was not responsible for each action of his officers. The third blunder was making a mess out of Manjhi issue. The fourth and his fatal mistake that would see his nemesis was joining forces with Lalu, whom he abused in the harshest words. Fence sitters, swing voters, youth, women, upper caste Hindus, OBCs, excluding few , who suffered under Lalu would not vote for JDU where it would contest. And RJD cadres will revolt against the JDU, reason one being RJD will not rule the state, second reason they never forget the choicest abuses their leader has got, third many have ditched Lalu after his conviction and fourth Nitish is not believed by the people in general as he has backstabbed two leaders within one year. The moot question will be, “What is the guarantee he will not ditch us and join hands with BJP?” The rift between the two local leaders is not unknown. Compared to that local BJP leadership has much less grouse on Lalu than Nisish- led JDU. Sharad Yadav may not take kindly to joining hands with RJD, though he has never come out against the alliance openly. The ego war between him and Nitish is also not unknown. NDA too may face some revolt but the strong arm of Shah-Modi will be able to keep people under control. Already, Modi offered additional berths for Bihar in the Central cabinet. All is in the game. OROP and special package will certainly be a boost for Bihar and support will enhance, when compared to May, 2014.

OPINION POLLS DURING LOKSABHA POLLS:

Most of the opinion polls during Bihar assembly polls starting from February, 2005 till October 2010, (Three polls, in all) went way out of mark. Exit polls too could not predict correct picture. In the LS polls held in May 2014 too, the opinion polls were short by 100 seats to NDA and almost all exit polls, except Chanakya, gave short by 50-60 seats less to NDA. Reason, psephology in India did not change with the times. They go by standard caste preferences etc., Migration of people is not given due place. Influence of migrants on voters is not taken into account. Aspirations of people are not taken into account. Increase in literacy, access to education, better transportation facilities, increase in real wages, improvement of living standards of people over six decades are all ignored.  I explained this in my September, 2013 blog on LS polls, which luckily turned out right. I predicted a landslide for BJP, on their own.

Ref:

http://chandravani2013.blogspot.in/2013/09/it-is-modi-all-way-analysis-part-1-can.html

Mine is not a science. In one way it is the sense of analysis of any issue that I developed since I was a youth. It is not psephology. It is PSEPHOLOGIC. I may too go wrong, as I never talk to any voter in these places. I mostly depend on contrasting analyses appearing in newspapers and an analysis of change in voter behaviour, new expectations every five years, exit of old generation, entry of new generation, increased migration, improvement in the real wages that people are able absorb a little inflation etc. Corruption in high echelons of power is almost eradicated and a transparent administration is in place. Slowly it is percolating down and more and more officers are being booked under stringent corruption loss. With Black Money Bill in the offing, disclosures increased and as Modi said, further generation of black money almost stopped. Steps are on to bring back the money stashed abroad.  The spoil sport that Congress wanted to play to halt progress of nation and JDU joining hands with Congress will have tremendous impact on voter psyche. Any voter will not expect result in one year, when they have already waited for six decades and nine years, with nothing happening. It is absurd thinking that incumbency will be against Narendra Modi. Improved infra will certainly change voter behaviour further. Hope BJP achieves it soon.

CASTE FACTOR:

It is certain, in many parts of India, especially in states like UP, Bihar, AP etc., Caste plays major factor. But, there is a paradigm shift here too. The narrow category of castes was later Mandalised into SCs/STs, OBCs, Upper Castes etc., But even this conglomeration did not help, as, with passing of times some castes in these groupings have become rich keeping the other castes poor. So, there is  neo-rich, neo- suppressive caste group in each category. So, unless a minute study of each caste group and their dependence on caste leaders is studied in detail, no analyst or psephologist can predict voter behaviour on caste basis. In religion, they were voting in groups for fear of persecution by the majority group in the constituency/state, mostly created by politicos. But this is also undergoing a paradigm shift, with people realising that they are being made scapegoats, better education, migration, better standards of living etc.  We cannot live in 1947/48 perennially, nor can Congress keep people paranoid forever.  I usually do not analyse polls on this basis as 1) I do not have full knowledge of caste groupings 2) I do not believe that in large sections, caste only makes the primary decision maker 3) I believe voter perception is changing faster than expected.

WHY JDU IS NOT A FORCE TO RECKON WITH, WHY CONGRESS FAILED TO CASH IN, WHY RJD LOST STEAM AND NDA MAY STILL REPEAT THE MAY,2014 POLLS

To come to a reasonable conclusion let us analyse position of each party since, February, 2005. That was when parties contested polls alone (RJD+CONGRESS together).  Let me first give a few figures and then analyse what the figures mean.

Year n Month     Party     Seats Contested   Seats won       Votes polled %         Efficiency of JDU n BJP

Feb, 2005             RJD             210                                 75                     25.07                                -----

                              JDU            138                              55                     14.55                                25.36

                              INC               84                              10                       5.00                               ------

                                 NCP              31                                3                       0.98                               ------

                             Total % Votes                               143                    45.60

                                BJP             103                                37                     10.70                               35.92

                             LJP             178                                29                     12.62

                                                            Total % votes                               23.88

JDU and RJD replaced Congress in Bihar State. BJP was just making a foray in the electoral politics. JDU and BJP contested together and the efficiency of performance was better than that of JDU. At that stage Nitish had a chance to support RJD and Congress and could have been Dy. CM, but his ego and ambition then did not allow his conscience to share power with Lalu, whom he accused of “JUNGLE RAJ”. The fact still remains. But for the CM seat again, he allied with the same leader, who now, is a convicted criminal on bail, after allegations on him were proven. Nothing will be disparaging, more than his act of allying with Lalu, just to satisfy his ego. I think, youth might not recall, but 42% of voters who belonged old generations would recall this.

Another interesting facet of this election is the independents and others sharing a whopping 16.16% of votes that shifted to mainstream parties later.

October 2005

Year n Month     Party     Seats Contested   Seats won       Votes polled %         Efficiency of JDU n BJP

Feb, 2005             RJD             175                                 54                     23.45                                -----

                              JDU            139                              88                     20.46                                63.30

                              INC               51                                9                       6.09                               ------

                                 NCP               8                                                          0.78                           ------

                                Total % Votes                               151                    50.79

                                BJP             102                                 55                     15.65                             57.92

                             LJP             203                                 10                     11.10

                              Total % votes                                    65                   26.94

Here RJD, despite almost, retaining its own vote share (it contested less seats), it lost heavily on seats. Reason might be its aligning with Congress might have turned against the party because of the alliance and it might have won its strongest seats.  JDU gained 5.89% and BJP 4.68% votes. JDU might have gained in many seats because of aligning with BJP and BJP too might have got transfer of votes from JDU. But, the 1% incremental difference shows that voters preferred RJD or Congress where JDU allied with BJP, may be due to caste factors. So, Nitish became CM and Modi Dy. CM. The Government earned good name in first five years as they could bring back a semblance of normalcy in the law and order situation.

Independents and others scored 8.77%. So, almost 8% of vote shifted to other parties. Both times BSP scored little above 4% playing a spoiler role only.

October, 2010

                                 RJD             168                                 22                      18.84                               -----

                              JDU            141                            115                     22.61                              81.56

                              INC             243                                4                       8.38                               ------

                                 NCP               8                                                          0.78                           ------

                                Total % Votes                               141                    49.83

                                BJP             102                                 91                    16.46                            89.22

                             LJP             203                                 10                    11.10

                              Total % votes                                 101                   26.94

JDU reached a peak of 22.61% in alliance with BJP which is spread across 141 seats. Now it is contesting 100 seats and BJP reached a peak of 16.46% in alliance with JDU, across 102 seats. It will contest 180+ seats now. This makes a difference as the voters who temporarily voted to JDU because of alliance in 39 seats will return and JDU voters will support BJP because of anger over Nitish. This is not a specious argument as May, 2014 proved, JDU base eroded heavily. RJD lost heavily and Congress gained a little. Congress has a vote share of 8.38% in 243 seats and now, it is contesting 40 seats. More than vote percentage, RJD lost many seats indicating that its vote is spread across 170+ seats it contested. Now it is contesting 100 seats. It will be onerous task to identify correct seats as many places NDA might have been in second place.

Votes can be transferred from one party to the other but votes in other constituencies cannot be shared. So, in October 2010, JDU+RJD+CONGRESS were strong in 141 seats BJP+LJP, with 23.21 % vote share are strong force in 101 seats, with 5% of votes contributed by JDU. Now, RLSP joined, Manjhi joined, who together can fill the gap of 5%. So, they are very strong in 101 seats at least.

May 2014 LS Polls:

These polls were fought with Modi Versus Nitish slogan and Bihar pride versus Gujarat pride. The Modi versus Nitish fight remains and the pride of Bihar is now contesting with Pride of India. You can imagine the resultant effect.

                                 RJD+            40                                     4                     20.10                             -----

                              JDU              40                                  2                     15.80                            

                              INC+            40                                  3                        9.60                               -----                             

                                Total % Votes                                    9                      45.80

                                BJP+              40                                22                    29.40                          

                             LJP                                                       6                       6.40

                             RSLP                                                    3                       3.00

                              Total % votes                                   31                     38.80

An interesting scenario here is JDU lost almost 6% votes by disengaging itself from BJP. BJP gained a whopping 13% vote by getting rid of JDU. One argument can be advanced that Modi wave swept the state. It cannot be true. Naveen Patnaik withstood. KCR withstood. Mamata withstood. Siddaramaiah, Jayalalita withstood. These are not stronger or as much development oriented as Nitish, in his own words. He always compared Gujarat with Bihar and said Bihar was better developed. Why did he lose?

The only explanation is the voters outright rejected his ditching Modi in the middle of a development of the state. Grounds on which more voters would be angry on him increased now with his treatment of a Dalit leader Manjhi, his joing hands with the convict Lalu and the corrupt Congress. In the final analysis, more votes will shift from JDU to BJP this time than to RJD and few votes of RJD will shift to JDU this time. This changes the equation. Congress is not strong anywhere except 5 to 10 seats and the few votes they get in other seats will add nothing to the kitty. In 40 seats Congress can only win 3 to 7 seats as per past trends. RJD is strong only in 40 out of 243 seats, and may be 25 out of 100 seats. JDU is not in the reckoning as it lost heavily to BJP in LS polls and nothing on ground improved for them and Nitish is not considered as strong even as a Naveen Patnaik or KCR. It is end game Nitish.

By simple arithmetic, BJP that got 29.40% will snatch further 3% from JDU, 3% from Manjhi faction and LJP and RSLP will retain its vote share. That makes vote share of NDA 46.8% or say 47%. JDU will lose 5% to BJP, 5% to RJD (Net of mutual transfers.) and retains 7.80% and RJD will gain maximum 5% from JDU as the seats they contest will be weaker for JDU.(Net of mutual transfers). Congress share reduces to 4% because of the less number of seats it is contesting than in Feb, 2005, when it contested 84 seats and got 5%.  That adds to 25.10+1.20+ 4.00+ 7.80 = 38.10%. (1.20 is NCP share).The swing from May, 2014 is more than 8.7% and it is anybody’s guess who wins more than 186 seats it has won in LS polls, the clear winner is NDA with more than 200 seats. No caste, religion, strategic voting or leadership strength of Nitish can beat this logic.

Added to this, in LS polls JDU stood at second place in only 4 places compared to 21 places by RJD and 7 places of INC (it being a national party). NDA stood second in 8 places. A little swing here and there will be great advantage to BJP and a little extent RJD but not certainly JDU. By conceding more seats to JDU than it can win RJD won its battle on Nitish, by ensuring that he would be nowhere to be seen in the Assembly and RJD would be trying to regain lost glory on the grave of JDU in future by being the main opposition to NDA. Logically and psepholgically too, it will be Modi all the way in Bihar.

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MY NEXT BLOG: A SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE PARTIES AND THE LEADERS AND THE CONCLUSION WHY IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR!