Voting patterns have changed. Mediocre politicians , Media men, seasonal flies called Journos and pshephologists (except few) are still living in old ages. I made an analysis of the voting patterns in India since the dawn of Independence and we can conclude that old generation of voters fade away and new generations start to take over the fight of battle perceptions. We no longer live in the glory of Independence day sacrifices, Bangladesh wars, or lows like Himalayan blunders etc., With India joining the Global village, bread and butter issues gave place to better living standards, infrastructure, well paid jobs, security and women and child welfare,. Caste and religion are being marginalised slowly with youth seeing the reality and independent house-culture giving place to apartment culture. (More on this in later parts). I made an analysis on the voting patterns eight months before Lok Sabha Polls and clearly indicated that Modi was heading for a landslide, by his own strengths and opposition weaknesses, in the following blog.
Pl go through. It was lengthy though.
http://chandravani2013.blogspot.in/2013/09/it-is-modi-all-way-analysis-part-1-can.html
I will present the scenario again here.
The following is part of my blog mentioned supra.
PART 3: POLLING TRENDS SINCE 1952 FOR THE GOP VS OTHER PARTIES:
In the 1952 elections Congress polled 44.99% of the votes polled across the country and secured 364 seats out of the 489 seats. More than 40 parties contested polls. Socialist Party stood a far second and Communists and Bharatiya Janasangh with a little over 3% vote share stood third and fourth. Polity was divided across the country in India during the first election itself, with a lot of non serious parties fighting elections. Congress securing less than 50% of vote share immediately after independence is a significant factor to be reckoned when we talk about the sharp divisions in the electorate in India.
In the 1957 elections Congress repeated the feat by securing 47.77% of total votes polled and 371 seats out of 490 seats. Independents secured 19% of the vote share, a significant factor to be reckoned. Socialist party retained its vote share while Janasangh secured almost 3% more than earlier elections.
In the 1962 general elections the vote share of Congress declined to 44.72% and it saw rise of regional forces like the DMK and Akali Dal and others and significant gains were recorded by the communists and Swatantra Party while Janasangh retained its share of vote. The decline of Congress as a national force started here though subsequent swings in its fortunes were seen later for various reasons.
In the 1967 election, which saw a disastrous war in October 1962 with China, demise of Nehru and Shastri, two Prime Ministers in the interim,Congress retained power. But these elections saw Congress mauled electorally though it retained majority with 283 seats out of 520. This election saw many states elect non-congress governments. With two factions led by Indira Gandhi and Morarji Desai slugging it out, Indira Gandhi was expelled from the party when she formed the Congress (I) and led the first minority government in 1969 supported by CPI.
But unwilling to run a minority government Indira declared mid term elections in 1971 and rode her party to power with a landslide of 352 seats against 283 in the earlier election. She took bold decisions like war on Pakistan to liberate East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. This is significant factor to be reckoned with, as charisma of a leader could win elections for a party struggling to keep its vote share. Congress increased its vote share to 43.68% despite many regional parties entering the fray and making the elections more divisive. BJP can hope to rewrite history by securing a similar vote share riding on the incumbency factor and charisma of its leader.
But the enormous economic cost of the war and refugee influx from Bangladesh and non-cooperation by USA and other world countries led India to its worst economic doom during this phase. Added to this the Allahabad High Court set aside her election in 1975. She declared emergency, arrested all dissenting voices and extended the term of Parliament. This is when strong anti-incumbency against the Congress swept the country, similar to the one we are seeing today.
For the first time in 1977, Congress was routed totally in elections and the newly formed Janata Party, with no strong leader to represent it won 51.89% of popular vote and 345 seats. A loose conglomerate of individual leaders having personal ambitions, the Janata Party died a natural death in 1980 with internal dissensions. In 1977 Congress fought elections on pre-poll alliances and on its own secured a meagre 34.52% of votes. Besides internal dissensions the Janata Party Government of the day appointed a commission of inquiry into the lapses during Emergency and a witch hunt was unleashed on her during the period by which she gained tremendous amount of sympathy across the country. This is significant as the Congress is repeating the same mistake in case of Modi, by which his sympathy vote is adding by the day among fence-sitters and this might be the game changer for BJP. Congress did not learn lessons from history even though some old leaders leaders of those days still continue to hold senior positions in the party. The reason might be that a sustained effort is being made from within the party to see the end of the road to the party in these elections.
In 1980 when Janata Party Government fell due to internal dissensions, Indira rode a wave of sympathy against the witch hunt by opposition leaders and won a landslide in alliance with smaller parties. Congress on its own secured simple majority with 286 seats. The vote share of Congress, though, dipped further as it fought in alliance with smaller parties.
In 1984, after assassination of Indira, in the elections Congress secured 414 seats, securing 49.14% of votes. The TDP formed by NTR was the only party that stood the storm of sympathy wave and secured 30 seats in AP becoming the main opposition in Lok Sabha. Again, it is a watershed in Indian democracy. NTR proved how a non-corrupt leader with oratory skills to reach the common man can do to withstand a storm caused by sympathy wave. This is a very significant factor we should reckon in the 2014 elections. No vote banks were necessary when it is sympathy, clean image and efficiency. In 2014, Modi is secure on both counts. Sympathy vote because of the constant hounding by Congress and media and his own added charisma.
The 1989 elections saw a reversal of fortunes for the congress that secured 197 seats with 39.53% vote share. The period between 1989 and 1991 saw a churning in Indian politics with faction leaders of various parties fighting for PM post and a mid term election was held in 1991.
The 1991 elections were held in two phases. First before the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in which Congress fared very poorly and post assassination when Congress swept polls but still got only 244 seats out of 545 with 35.66% vote share. This election saw the phenomenal rise of BJP which secured 120 seats with 20.04% vote share despite sympathy wave due to Rajiv's death.
Post 1991 the Congress could manage to run a minority government for full five years under the able leadership of Mr.P.V.Narasimha Rao, the first Prime Minister from Congress from non-Nehru family to rule for five years with full authority and without outside interference. Here too we have to see how an effective leader can come out of the shadows of the dynasty and still rule the nation efficiently. Many voters voting in 2014 might be knowing the 1991-96 phase and the present leadership and compare both. This will be an additional scoring point for BJP.
In 1996, the BJP led the chart with 161 seats and the Congress stood second with 140 seats. Though A.B.Vajpayee formed the government, it could not muster enough support to cobble up a stable alliance and he resigned without facing Parliament. Congress played second fiddle to Deve Gowda and allowed him top form the United Front Government.After much real politic played by the Congress the UF Government fell in 1998 and fresh elections were held. Though A.B.Vjpayee formed Government of NDA, it lasted few months and fresh elections were held in end 1999. Congress that secured 28.80% vote share in 1996 dropped further to 25.82% in 1998.
During 1999 elections, Congress, though regaining the 28.80% vote share lost power to NDA which ruled for five years with outside support from TDP.
In 2004 BJP lost power to the Congress led UPA alliance though it retained its vote share of 1999. The first term of UPA saw India grow phenomenally due to many factors despite lack of efficient delivery system of the government and riding on the back of middle class support it retained power in 2009.
The period from 2009 to 2013 saw the gradual decline of morality in public life with many scandals involving top leaders of ruling alliance coming out into the open. We stand now at the crossroads with the nation looking for change and Modi emerging as the undisputed leader of change mongers.
If we observe the voting percentage patterns, more number of people got voting rights since 1952 due to reduction in age to 18 years for voting. The percentage of voting substantially increased from 44.77% in 1952 to 59.7% in 2009. When strong anti incumbency was discernible it climbed up to 63%.
I also gave a brief picture of the opinion polls and exit polls in Indian elections by various agencies. You can see many are far from real picture. India is a difficult country for surveys, as many hide their preferences and those who tell the truth are minimal. Secondly, poll agencies go on patterns of earlier polls, that are now fast changing with mass reach of information and illiteracy rate coming down.
Refer this table for LS elections.
Pre-poll surveyS
Agency Dates Result
CNN/IBN,ICDS 8Jan to 15 Sep.2009 UPA 215-235, NDA 165-185, others 125-135
Star-Nielson 5Mar to 17 Mar.2009 UPA 257(Cong.144),NDA -184, Others 96+
Star-Neilson 26Mar to 3 Apr.2009 UPA 203 9Cong155), NDA-191, Others -104+39+
Outlook-The Week Mar-Apr 2009 UPA 234 (Cong 144), NDA86, Others -112+
Times of India March, 2009 UPA 201 (Cong 146), NDA- 195, Others-147+
ExIt polls
CNN/IBN-
Dainik Bhaskar 13 May,2009 UPA 185-205,NDa 165-185, Others 135-165
Star-Neilson -DO- UPA 199, NDA 196, Others 136
India TV-C-Voter -DO- UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195, Others 105-121
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"Congress, in its effort to play down the effect of Modi started talking Modi, singing Modi, dancing Modi and finally they forgot that they are a national party with a leader whose name they forgot! Alas! The situation was brought upon them by their own ineptness of handling a strong adversary. "
With Bihar election looming large on the horizon, the moot question is "Did Congress learn not to target a very strong adversary day in and day out?" The answer is a cear "NO". With Parliament disruption continuing without strong reasons and other opposition parties playing hide and seek, the game for Congress is "The King and last pawn left out" in a chess game. LAB did not pay as much dividends as possible because of the hefty compensations being offered and private sector being restricted in this aspect, as far as possible. In Growth versus Disruption game, Growth wins. But let us assess various scenarios, strengths and wekanesses of the two groupings, strengths of the two leaders in the fray. So, I call this blog again as "MODI ALL THE WAY AGAIN IN 2015, IN BIHAR".
Please read my assessment with facts, figures, various personalities, what the people want and what Nitish and Modi delivered, will caste equations work, will Lalu spoil the party for Nitish and where exactly Congress stands in the melee called "Bihar Polls"?.
To be frank, Bihar is the most difficult terrain for psephologists. If you add one positive, you may need to deduct two negatives. If you multiply caste, religion votes you may have to divide them with aspiring youth and the way they live in Bihar and the way they live outside Bihar. So, we can brush aside the pre-poll surveys as sham. Let us make individual assessment as far as possible. We too might go awry, but I am confident it is "MODI ALL THE WAY" this time around again. Which Modi? Let us introspect.
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PART 2
Different players in the Pariwar and how they add and deduct the Nitish vote. And how Nitish will be left alone at the end of the battle, the cursed Karna in Mahabharata. He must have been on the Dharma side but chose Adharma, because of envy on Arjuna, another great warrior of many battles.
Tomorrow.
In the first part, I dealt with the change of pattern in the voting with preferences of youth changing fast. In any election voters play a crucial role but role of leaders can not be overlooked. Usually, in a generalized scenario there would two to three or maximum four crucial players that influence the pattern of voting. They are established leaders or proven administrators who depend on propagating their past growth story or criminals in the guise of politicians and some convicts too that depend on vote banks like caste and religion. In Bihar, there are a few fringe players who are non-serious outsiders, who, though not contesting polls, may be able to swing voters. Let us examine the players and their role play and and whether they can put up a grand Opera Show, deciding the final outcome. Opera is a time-tested show that people enjoy without so much following what the actors are saying. I too like it.
Let us go from the down to the top, starting with the fringe players and ending with Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi, the main players in the show.
1. ARVIND KEJRIWAL:
Nitish kumar met Arvind Kejriwal four times officially, as per Media reports. And the naturally anti Modi media gave good coverage to the events. Arvind Kejriwal who positions himself as the main anti-Modi leader, that thinks he is only capable of defeating him at his game, promised he wont contest the Bihar elections, thus ensuring that the few hundreds or tens of voters of AAP will not get divided. This is, to say the least, a maniacal thinking. There are three possibilities. They follow the leader and vote Janata Pariwar, abstain or defy him and vote NDA. His is whimsical thinking. And Bihar is not Delhi where street side meetings and Mohalla Sabhas influence voters. May be Kejriwal and Nitish realize this at the appropriate time.
The other reason that Media floated as a theory why Nitish met Kejriwal was to swing the families of million odd voters that voted to AAP in Delhi polls. This is obviously an idea of the poll manager of Nitish, who earlier worked with Modi and saw large numbers of families of migrants from Gujarat voting Modi both in UP and Bihar.
There are two differences. Modi proved to be non-corrupt and his zero tolerance to corruption saw Gujarat develop fast. Moreover, he never divided people into classes like Autowallahs, Taxiwallahas, Middle classes, upper classes, to win votes of groups, called vote banks. Most of the migrants from UP and Bihar to Delhi must have settled as drivers as it is in Mumbai and others blue/white collared middle classes/upper classes. These people voted in favor of AAP as he promised Heaven. He kept up the promise for few days but his running feud with Delhi police caught most of them between the devil and deep sea. So, he had to reverse his stand and issue orders for a week-long drive against errant drivers. This was done in view of mounting opposition from blue collared and white collared middle classes. Did he lose both? Time will tell. And with no change in their living standards, it is a billion dollar question these million will influence their families as Gujarati settlers did. They enjoyed the fruits for long.
When MGR, NTR, Jayalalita etc., stormed to power in South they tried their hand, immediately after polls, to influence voters in neighboring states where settlers from one state to the other go in larger numbers, they failed to garner many votes. They could not influence even voters in the border areas. Each state has its specific issues and Delhi is too far from Bihar.
If Kejriwal wanted to influence middle class voters with his honesty mask,the Tomars, the Sisodias and others who were in the news for wrong reasons did not help his cause. he is treated as any other politician. His running feud with the LG and the many cases in courts against his government and personally against himself only distanced him from educated classes more.
In a nutshell, Kejriwal may prove a liability than an asset to Nitish. Added to this, if JDU mobilizes huge crowds for AK rally, which sure it will do, it will anger Lalu more that he was being ignored. (If AK shares stage wth Lalu his influence will further dent and before Punjab polls) That will be rubbing salt on his wounds. He may further sabotage the Pariwar chances. This will be a big blow.
2. MULAYAM SIGH YADAV:
Mulayam is known to change his political stance at the drop of a hat. There is nor rhyme nor reason why he does this. His stand in Parliament of not pressing for resignation of Sushma Jee is an example. He knows that the issue of Chief Ministers can not be discussed in Parliament and so as far as he is concerned he is exactly opposite the Congress here, with whom he wanted Nitish to tie up in Bihar. With his wobbling stand, the position of JDU too became precarious and Congress was as good as isolated in LS on Friday. One stark reality he knows is that Congress is a deeply wounded horse and that party is doing nothing to heal the wounds at micro level. so tying up with Congress deeply at this stage hurts him in UP, where he may not go with Congress. So, role of Mulayam was limited in forcing Lalu to accept Nitish as CM candidate that he immediately described as "drinking poison". MSY may not further interfere in the covert feud between the two powerful forces in Bihar and spoil his own chances in UP. So, he is neither an asset nor a liability, but an audience in the Opera show.
3. THE THACKERAYS
Surprised? I too was, till I heard two personal drivers talking politics. These two hail from UP. One was before LS polls. He saw one Government Board with senior Thackeray's name and asked me, " Is it not wrong to name government institutions after names of politicians?" I told him many governments do it and quoted example of Congress. "We do not like it, sir"., he said. The migrants issue is a burning issue in Mumbai and we know the stand of Shiva Sena and MNS on this. It paid political dividends to them.
But how does this help NDA or to say BJP in Bihar? Two negatives make a positive in Mathematics. So too, in politics. BJP went alone in LS polls in Maharashtra. That was a political master stroke. SS has its core vote bank. BJP could not have harmed it. BJP gained in Maharashtra and North by distancing temporarily with SS and not tying up with MNS. it paid dividends. Both again reconciled and overtly running a Government of uneasy relationship. This helped keep Congress and NCP far from each other. Both can not live without power. So the distance is growing. So, the few thousand votes that NCP has in Bihar may not go to the Pariwar after all. This is one negative to the Pariwar.
Shiva Sena is still in an overt war with BJP in Maharashtra and Press and Media are giving extensive coverage to this. Whether it is true or contrived until NDA gets majority in RS by winning UP and Bihar, time only will tell. But the message goes down well. As SS has virtually no presence in Bihar, the natural choice of voters will be BJP and not Pariwar. Migrants never felt safe under NCP+Congress rule, as they are now. This is another negative for Pariwar. The effort of Nitish to come to Mumbai to woo migrants may not fructify if he fights along with Congress and also may act as a deterrent.
One more example, though isolated. One of my kin booked to and fro flight tickets to his driver when he could not get train tickets during summer season to visit family. It was given free without asking.He says the whole village is elated that people really have changed after Modi has taken over. He also tells that all drivers decided to work more hours and would convince their employers to contribute to their flight charges every year. And surprisingly he says these people really feel Modi is being heard by middle/upper classes "Sab Ka saath; Sab ka vikas" Such subtle messages pass through these circles very fast and add to the strength of the winning combination.
4. RAHUL GANDHI AND INC INDIA:
From the Vice President of a party that ruled the nation for six decades, to a fringe player in national and state politics, the journey of Rahul downhill is very steep and fast. To make him more of a leader he was sent on sabbatical for two months (what is told to us). After coming back he started talking. Media went gung ho. "Here comes the leader." But, alas! He reminded a comic story doing rounds in my childhood.
A guy who wanted to learn English went on sabbatical for two months like Rahul. The Guru tried to teach him English. His efforts were futile. Vexed, he told him three words, "Yes, No, Alright". He got them by heart. As he was going home a theft took place. Policeman saw this guy on the road and asked him. "Did you steal the chain?" He replied, "Yes". Then he asked, "Will you return the chain?" He replied, "No". The police asked him finally, "Will you go jail?" he said, "Alright".
Anyone who observed the post - sabbatical Rahul will know he learned few words and not even sentences and is using them where ever he goes. One example is he goes to small agitating groups and tells them, "I will stand with you 24 hours till your fight ends". He goes and sleeps in a seven star accommodation. The fighters continue their fight and he is never seen even sitting, let alone standing.
Congress is yet to formally join the Pariwar Their only concern seems to be to save skins from investigations and possible charge sheets in 2016 July, when NDA gets majority in RS too with pliable new allies, who are ready to support them to save their own skins. The battle of wits starts then. Immediate fall -out of the NH case will be serious if charges are framed on 2nd September this year and most likely Congress will be isolated again giving Lalu a stick to beat Nitish with and divide the Pariwar vertically. Hopefully, this internecine war within Pariwar intensifies as days pass by and Lalu skipping Sonia Iftar lock, stock and barrel has been the prologue to the Opera.
So, Congress and Rahul will be the biggest liabilities whether inside or outside the Pariwar. It is bad news for Nitish.
5. JITAN RAM MANJHI:
Few outside Bihar would have heard his name had he not been made CM by Nitish, an emulation of Sonia experiment at the Centre to run Government by proxy. But Nitish proposed, Manjhi disposed. Within few months he was not only firmly in the saddle but started ignoring his mentor in as much as reversing a few decisions of Nitish but also taking decisions that were not palatable to him. Here, Nitish made a mistake. Seeing the overtures of BJP to Manjhi he was paranoid of a split in his own party and with two governments at Centre and state led by BJP, he was afraid that popular decisions would follow soon, eclipsing him as "Savior of Bihar". But, at the opportune moment BJP backtracked and lot of drama followed in unseating Manjhi that cost Nitish politically. Manjhi proved to be an honest politician who overtly seemed working for the lowest strata at the same time keeping middle classes in good books. He is a powerful, witty orator as we saw in Mujaffarnagar the other day. His ubiquitous smile on face is an added advantage compared to Nitish, who has a serious visage and too serious to be witty. Manjhi in the opposite camp is a liability to the Pariwar.
6. RAM VILAS PASWAN:
He is a veteran of many battles and partner in many camps. A single leader party, he carries a vote share of 4.5 to 7% in Bihar that is handy for any combination. Moreover he is a Minister at the Centre, a position politicians use to lure voters. All in the game. He is a powerful orator, presently non-controversial because of Modi diktat. So, he is an asset to NDA and liability to the Pariwar.
7.SHARAD YADAV:
He is a good Parliamentarian. powerful speaker with no group behind him. His oratory is an added advantage to Pariwar. He is a veteran of many battles and a strategist. But how far he will adjust with Nitish Kumar is a billion dollar question. Both are egoists and do not see eye to eye on many issues. It has to be seen whether he can be real asset to the Pariwar. He too is unblemished in his career but does not carry a pan Bihar image, confined to national politics for most of the time.
8. SUSHILKUMAR MODI:
The soft spoken, hard working Sushil Kumar Modi, the most likely CM if NDA wins. is loved by Biharis. He was Dy CM, who is seen as one of the driving forces in the success of Nitish. He rarely enters controversies, nor issues controversial statements. There were no charges of corruption or nepotism on him and it is not surprising that 42% of Biharis prefer him as CM, next only to Nitish. This count may be more or increase as poll heat picks up. Being Modi, the Kejriwal suggeestion that it should be Modi vs Nitish in Bihar may boomerang, as there are two most acceptable Modis in the NDA camp. The gamble may simply not work here. Moreover, in his first speech itself Modi made it look like the war is Modi vs Nitish. He taunted Nitish enough to take the gauntlet. No wonder both Lalu and Nitish issued strong rejoinders to him. Modi blew the War Conch for the war between him and Nitish in right spirit.
All the above are fringe players as far as Bihar elections are concerned tilting the vote share here or there. The only exception is Sushil Kumar Modi, who may turn out to be the main player in days to come, in the Modi vs Nitish battle.
There are other leaders like Mukthar Abbas Naqui, Giriraaj Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Radha Mohan Singh and Upendra Kuhava etc., on the NDA side who carry considerable clout in Bihar and many other leaders there in. On the Pariwar side the spectrum revolves around Nitish and Lalu. From Samjwadi party MSY may play a role depending on which side he is then. Congress can not boast of a local leader that can tilt the scales. So the battle is between Nitish and Lalu on one side and the two Modis and other leaders mentioned supra, with few leaders of alliance partners on the other side.
If we come to Pariwar the two faces we remember are Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar who are known adversaries, so much so that Nitish became CM to bring Bihar out of the jungle raj of Lalu and claimed credit many times that he achieved a crime-free Bihar. So, it is again a billion dollar question how Biharis view the traditional bete noirs joining hands to defeat Modi, who is development-centric and a powerful leader. Let us examine the role they play in this grand opera.
9. LALU PRASAD YADAV:
A leader in his own right who defied all odds and became Chief Minister with support from all sections. But, alas! Power has gone to his head and grass did not grow under his feet. He unleashed a reign of terror, while he was giving witty lectures. People may not believe but is is true. People never used to come out on the streets of Patna after 8 PM, at one point of time. He is a powerful and witty orator. Once upon a time he was being heard with rapt attention even by highly educated people. He knows politics to the core. He is a master strategist who never says "die". He was charged in fodder scam,convicted, arrested and released on bail but he got very few sympathizers in Bihar. Does he carry the same clout he has been carrying during his hay days?
He tasted first defeat in February, 2005 but as a stable government could not be formed elections were held in October the same year where he was decimated. His decline started and continued till Mulayam called him to join the Pariwar. MSY can not be relied upon.
Lalu was not obviously satisfied with announcing Nitsh as CM candidate before polls. So, unlike in Delhi, the non announcement of CM candidate by NDA and announcement by Pariwar are on equal footing as a dissatisfied Lalu is a second CM (his family member) candidate always. He maintained studied silence after Nitish was made CM face but took pot shots at the event, saying sometimes we would have to drink poison too. That speaks volumes. He may bargain for more number of seats for his party and a Dy CM post for his party when negotiations start and there will be rebel candidates in many seats some sponsored by Lalu himself. He is cunning. His recent snubbing Sonia Iftaar is a signal that he considers Congress a fringe player in Bihar, that might spell trouble for a grand alliance. His party's reluctance to join Congress protest in Parliament is enough indication that for him his security is more important than making Nitish CM again. So will he be an asset or liability for Pariwar? Things will be clear after 2nd September after NH case goes for hearing or gets adjourned. Sentimentally, 2nd September was the day Congress lost heavily down south when the one leader who ruled a state with iron fist, YSR from AP died.
10. NITISH KUMAR :
Nitish Kumar is a soft spoken politician, who brought Bihar out of a mess created by Lalu and Company, ably assisted by S.K.Modi. His ego did him in. If he continued in NDA he would have been in a prime position today and need not have fallen back on Lalu, whom he accused as demon and on AK, a man with honesty mask. Nitish is truly honest, very sincere, hardworking and won the hearts of Biharis. But a glance at the rate of winning in 2010, BJP pipped him by winning more percentage of seats contested than JDU and in 2014 LS polls the decimation was total by NDA. So, it is fait accompli that JDU on its own does not command as much support as NDA but as a grouping it may. The big question mark for Nitish is his genetic hatred for Lalu. A man who spurned Narendra Modi may not like to share stage with Lalu. Other players like Kejriwal, Sharad and even MSY may not do so, keeping their image in mind. This will anger Lalu more, who may play spoil sport. Lalu will see SK Modi as CM, more than Nitish as a third or fourth time CM. This is my sincere assessment and it is almost a lone battle for Nitish. Does he have so much following?
His resignation, installing Manjhi only to throw him out once he became strong may have sent wrong signals to youth and first time voters, who think before voting. And this section may influence their elders to shed their old inhibitions, loyalties and shun the loosely connected thread called Pariwar. But, Nitish carries a charisma locally and can still pull off a magic. Much depends on rebel candidates mainly from RJD and his own party.
JDU, RJD are ahead in canvassing but BJP is picking up fast with the entry of Modi and Shah into the big screen. It is do or die battle for Nitish.
11. NARENDRA MODI;
Defying speculation of Media and Modi baiters, Narendra Modi announced his arrival in the Bihar battle with a bang. The meeting at Muzarpur was grand success with youth and first time voters thronging the venue with enthusiasm. Modi was at his best there and he was given hearty response by the crowd. This is good news for BJP. It was struggling to find an answer to the Delhi defeat, though the defeat indirectly helped them as the inept handling of a big Municipal Corporation with 67 MLAs has become an onerous task for AK. Instead of ruling from the front he started to attack Modi day in and day out. People expect the CM to rule and not to find alibis. This sent a strong signal to people around Delhi and the nation that with a BJP CM in saddle these daily fights could be avoided. Modi may not speak much of AK. He avoided Lalu by name, rubbing salt on his wounds making Nitish as the main rival. We need not discuss much about Modi as we know his approach. LAB may not click, as by end of this month NDA may come out with more farmer-friendly bill and take it to the farmers.
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PART 3: Issues at stake in Bihar and how and where each player stands on these issues and the caste and religion factors tomorrow.
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PART 4 : THE VOTING PATTERNS SINCE FEBUARY, 2005 TILL MAY, 2014 LS POLLS. OPINION AND EXIT POLLS AND HOW THEY FARED.
With Modi pitching in strongly at Mujafarpur and making the battle of Bihar a Modi versus Nitish affair, issues revolve around these two personalities. While Nitish tries to attack Modi on non-performance in one year, Modi is certainly going to make the Gujarat versus Bihar as the main plank and the Bihar Versus Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh as secondary plank and the Bihar versus the new government in Jharkhand and improvement of law and order situation in Jharkhad, post BJP take over as teritiary issue. (BIMARU. Except Ma, all others are weak) The jungle raj of Lalu reign will be another issue. Nitish may try to rake up "Yakub Memon" hanging issue. He may make LAB a big issue and say if elected, he wont pass fresh land law. This will be countered by BJP effectively. Congress flipflops and UPA scams will be brought out by BJP and what stand Nitish took then and where he had stood now would be hot discussion.
Let us try to minutely discuss how each issue, if raked up, benefits or boomerangs on both the main players (if there are two only, that I doubt, as still Congress is a taboo to many parties except Yechury and Yechury is taboo to others). Parliament logjam will get prime place if Congress finally joins the alliance. (I doubt Rahul thought initially that it was a kind of Italian Jam that his mother would serve with bread. Intelligence slowly dawned on him and he went to Pune Institute to learn more from guys studying there since childhood).
With Congress members being suspended from Loksabha and both JDU and RJD, though overtly seen as supporting Congress cause, seem wary of public backlash of supporting a loose and lost cause. They may boycott Parliament to show they are untited but the heartburn about congress' flawed stand remains. And NDA took a stand in Joint Parlimentary Committee that the UPA Bill would be passed in toto, leaving the states to determine their stand on infra and industrial growth. Now, Congress can not take a stand that NDA has buckled under pressure or that Rahul has proved himself as leader, as nothing has changed on the ground except that the Central Government is pitching one state against the other in an unparellelled competition to attract investments. So, it is a win win game for NDA as far as LAB is concerned. By postponing the inevitable till the nearest possible date of Bihar elections BJP tried to score browny points and succeeded in keeping allies in good books. It is a loss to the Pariwar certainly, as the biggest stick to beat BJP with is now in the hands of NDA.
Issues that may dominate the polls may be as follows.
1. Crime Rate and Poverty in Bihar:
This will play out as a major issue in Bihar. After Nitish Kumar took over as CM, slowly but steadily the crime rate came down and the JDU+BJP government tried its level best to take the state out of poverty line with little success.
If Nitish Kumar takes credit for the reduction in crime rate he can not but give credit to the BJP with whom he has been on honeymoon till 2013. Later, during Manjhi time too the crime rate did not show increase nor jungle raj returned to Bihar. So, the question uppermost in the minds of electorate would be why Nitish left BJP hand with whose help he could curb crime and why he dethroned Manjhi, who individually tackled crime effectively. More than this, the question that would be asked by BJP to the electorate would be what forced Nitish to join hands with Lalu, who was not only a convict on bail but under whose reign corruption and crime thrived. And they will try to influence voter behavior by taking a message to the masses that Nitish is interested in power rather than Bihar welfare. This will be a big booster to NDA which is adept in micro management of polls under Modi-Shah. Compared to this Modi never buckled under pressure of Media, insiders, outsiders etc., and did not remove a single Minister nor changed their portfolios. Continuity is the biggest asset in good governance. Nitish failed on this for personal ambition. Hope BJP will take this message down well and in time.
If, on the other hand, if BJP rakes up the issue of non-development of Bihar it can not escape responsibility as for eight years it has shared the plate with Nitish. But, BJP can attack Congress/UPA of showing step-motherly attitude to non-congress governments and again question Nitish on the propriety of alligning with a party that has never shown concern for Bihar. A minor plus point to BJP and major negative to Nitish.
2. SPECIAL STATUS:
Special status is an issue that Nitish wants to make big in the polls. In fact, in AP, Odisha too there is a lot of resentment on the issue. As the CMs of those states are not so anti-NDA and they understand the economics of special status versus special packages better (nitish too understands but does not want to come out), they are now trying for the best special packages. Already the Finance Commission increased the States's share by almost 30% of the existing share. This gave states extra leverage. In Bihar, already Modi announced the special package of more than 50,000 crores unofficially. Most probably it will be announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort on 15 the August, 2015.
BJP has its ammunition ready with a clear cut explanaion of what more benefits Bihar will get or AP may get by the special package (it includes many aspects including tax breaks), when compared to Special status. According to some economists, special staus means loss to some states as the total grants will come down substatially. It mostly depends on how BJP will be able to make the common folk understand this. If they are successful, this issue will be in cold storage.
3. MODI'S ONE YEAR IN OFFICE:
The sound bites of Media and opposition are , "Where are Acche Din (Good Days?). This does not sustain in polls, as voters know that the one year in office of Modi has far better than the six decades of Congress rule or 10 year rule of JDU in Bihar. We can not still live in the 1950s where Zamindars have been dictating the voting patterns and the whole villages have been following their diktats. Nor are these the days of "ballot papers" and boxes that are being rigged and or carried away. The country changed. Time of digital CC cameras has come. It is not possible to rig elections and villagers are more in sync with happenings in the world with youth from various states moving to various other states/countries in search of work and telling stories of better living conditioons in other states/nations. Delhi, Mumbai and Gujarat including small towns are where most migrant labor live. The success stories in Gujarat and Mumbai and no dearth of income for the working classes will certainly have an effect on voting patterns. In Delhi too migrants give credit to the Congress rather than to AAP which did nothing but squabble with Modi. And the corruption in Congress times will be a major issue again and a new face with new ideas will be what voters look for. The continued squabbles between BJP and Shivasena and the rumor that the cousins Raj and Uddhav are coming together doing rounds in Mumbai, will make BJP job easier, as migrants know they are safe under BJP. And Shiva Sena too stopped targeting non-locals after 2014 elections and are concentrating on development politics and this augurs well for NDA as a whole. SS is now concentrating to win votes on development plank only. But it takes time for old wounds to heal.
4. NITISH FLIP FLOPS :
The fact of Nitish leaving NDA out of sheer envy for Modi did not go well with the voters of Bihar. Moreover, he could not compromise with Lalu or Congress on whom he had made serious charges of corruption against both parties. But, when the going went tough for him in Lok Sabha polls, he compromised both on corruption and crime and joined hands with both to just keep his CM post intact. His forcing Mulayam to accept him as CM candidate may not have gone well with youth, who form about 35% of voters and 24 lakh new voters who are a main force to reckon with. And before much water passed in the Yamuna or Brahmaputra or Ganges, he unseated Manjhi, an overtly able administrator, just because of paranoiya that his stock had been on down slide.
If we could go back to 2014, many voters in AP were disillusioned with TDP because of his alliance with Modi, whom he once spurned as communal.And , the few voters in AP and substantial voters in TG of BJP too were disillusioned at a tie up with TDP. Reason is simple. People are fed up with opportunistic alliances just to win. NDA scraped through in AP whereas it lost in TG. This applies to Bihar too. It was 12 years ago Chandrababu spurned Modi. People never forgave him nor BJP. How can we expect Bihar electorate to forgive Nitish who spurned two good leaders just within one year? Some analysts may argue that Bihar votes on religion and caste. AP is no different. Or else, accused in many cases, Jagan would not have come too close to TDP with minor difference in vote percentages. Like Poirot, people never forget. Like sherlock Holmes they hound out the Hounds of Baskervelle.
5. THE BIHAR MODEL VERSUS GUJARAT MODEL:
I do not think Nitish Pariwar has much leeway here. Gujarat is coninuing on the development path even after Modi has left and has never intervened in the administration there either overtly or covertly. Luckily BJP has no high command culture. Bihar is still seeking special packages and special status. Bihar, even under Nitish, never tried to address problems from down under. They tried to subsidize people more than they tried to make them good, skilled workers. Nitish never tried for investments. Rayalaseema in AP is attracting huge investments now in infra and industries. It was no less crime prone than Bihar a decade earlier. Where lies the difference? Two good CMs (one, of course, outright corrupt) who tried to woo investors. They used available funds to develop the backward areas. Nitish never tried this and hence migration continued. Migration to far off places leaving family at home is the biggest curse. Will they excuse the successive governments? Modi's stress on local employment and success stories in Gujarat and Mumbai, Pune will certainly tilt scales.
6. THE BIHAR MODEL VERSUS MADHYA PRADESH MODEL:
Till the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government took over in Madhya Pradesh, the states Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh were called BIMARU, the most backward states. Shivraj changed the scenario in ten years and one should feel proud the way he developed the state. He too had a hostlie Central Government. His neighbour Chattisgadh too showed marked development. The question that would be raised by BJP would be why could Nitish not do the same in Bihar? Of course, BJP was partner but Nitish was uncrowned king of Bihar. He took credit for reduction in crime. He should take the stick for not developing Bihar. Rajasthan, on the other hand was under UPA from 2008 to2013. UP was under rule of local parties. This is a postive issue BJP will bring home.
7. THE YAKUB MEMON CONTROVERSY:
This is one issue on which the Pariwar expects to polarise votes of a community. This may boomerang. If they polarise votes of community the reverse polarisation can not be stopped. One example is when I have told the domestic helps the day Memon has been hanged that I woke up whole night, they said they too were viewing TV the whole night. This has been an emotive issue with general public. When it comes to hanging a criminal, caste equations in Hindu society will be minmalized.Symapthy can not be generated when it is with a hardcore criminal. Further, it is difficult to convince the community too as these Pariwar leaders took diametrically opposite stand on Afzal Guru hanging, who was responsibe for nine deaths. Further, total peace after hanging with not much of policing in the country is proof enough Modi has been successful in sending out the message, "SAB KA SAATH, SAB KA VIKAS". Yes! There are hardliners. But there are moderateds in equal numbers. BJP will easily target this moderate groups against all odds and Bihar will be the first test case in winning votes of all communities. I hope, with much better planning, BJP will succeed in this. Naqui is a moderate face that can influence voters and he is a powerful speaker too.
Let us see what each leader in the Pariwar said after Afzal hanging.
Headline in The Hindu that was highly critical of Memon hanging.
"Afzal Guru hanging: voice of affirmation across political spectrum"
"Political parties on Saturday said justice has been done with the execution of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru even as BJP questioned the delay in carrying out the death sentence."
"“The law has taken its course. The Parliament attack convict has been hanged,” Congress spokesman Rashid Alvi said reacting to the execution of Guru in Tihar Jail in New Delhi."
“Justice has been done,” another Congress spokesman Sandeep Dikshit said."
"In Chennai, Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari said the decision to hang Guru was not based on political considerations."
“The process of Article 72 unfolded and once the mercy petition was rejected by the president (Pranab Mukherjee) the law took its own course,” Mr. Tewari told reporters."
"Mr. Alvi said the capital punishment to Afzal Guru would send a message to all terror outfits that India will not tolerate terror.“We have sent a message to the world that we cannot tolerate terrorism at any cost. Anybody committing any acts of terror will be punished. People of our country and government have zero tolerance for terrorism”, he said."
"CPI(M) said the law of the land has taken its course as far as attack on the Indian Parliament is concerned.“I think, the law of the land with all its provisions has finally been completed as far as the Afzal Guru case and the attack on the Indian Parliament is concerned. The issue which had been lingering for the past 11 years has finally completed its due course,” CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Sitaram Yechury said."
Reacting to the hanging of Afzal Guru, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said on Saturday that act was inevitable, although delayed.“It is a question of a criminal act. The matter was kept pending for long. With the apex court’s sentence, justice eventually prevailed. There is a feeling among the common people that this should have happened earlier,” Mr. Kumar said.
These statements and the exact contradictory statements by the same leaders post Memon hanging can be spread through Bihar before polls are announced. This will let the people know the hypocrisy of the seculars and how they were using vote banks to suit their needs. Hopefully, Nitish will not raise this issue in polls.
Another point on which BJP would counter the offensive would be that Afzal Guru was hanged secretively, relatives had no access to his mortal remains whereas the law of land was scupulously followed in case of Memon. Death by hanging might be cruel but hardcore criminals can not be condoned on humanitarian grounds. Parties that said there was no politics in Afzal hanging saw only politics in Memon hanging. In case of Guru also main culprits who planned the attack were not brought to justice as in the case of Memon.
8. CASTE POLITICS:
Not much can be said on this count as I never studied poll outcomes on caste basis. But, one thing is certain, if the Congress and its tail parties want to encash on caste equations, this time around BJP is more into the game very early, with Modi raising the Yadav pride in his first meeting. Giving Paswan and Manjhi more time than even SK Modi sent sgnals BJP is not shy to play the politics of Congress. During moderate times, BJP was feeling out of place on this count. With two strong leaders with winning ways at the helm this inhibition gave way to enthusiasm. Go out and win, is the message. Manhi, Paswan and few other caste leaders are crtain to work overtime to divide the oppostion camp, I feel.
9. LALU PRASAD YADAV:
Lalu will be the main target of attack as time goes by. He is a convicted criminal out on bail. He did not mend his ways. Nitish won Bihar to unseat the demon Lalu. He wanted to throw away the jungle kingdom. Opportunistic alliance this time will be the main poll plank and BJP is going to reap rich dividends in urban seats, with youth and first time voters.
10. SPECIAL PACKAGE:
The almost 75,000 crore package that Modi is going to announce that will pass on many benefits to Bihar is going to be utilised by BJP against the Special Staus demand, that is less lucrative on many counts.
11. THE PROMISED PROHIBITION:
It is a million dollar question how people take this. Prohibition usually leads to disenchantment. Perception of people of what is good or what is bad changed. Further, many states depend on excise revenue. Crime rate may increase as illicit liquor flow can not be stopped in states like Bihar. We have to see how voters take this promise.
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PART 4 : THE VOTING PATTERNS SINCE FEBUARY, 2005 TILL MAY, 2014 LS POLLS. OPINION AND EXIT POLLS AND HOW THEY FARED.
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