The data I will submit in the next blog on Bihar poll since Febraury, 2005 will be mind boggling and one way not worth blogging. For, I analyse polls on paradigm shift in the thinking of voters rather than the equations that existed before. That happened in 2014 and would most likely repeat in Bihar in 2015. One reason of my confidence is that Nitish has spoiled his and Bihar's DNA, by his flip flops overtly exhibiting that he is over ambitious like Macbeth and now ably supported by two Ladies of his choice the RJD and the Congress, whose sins cannot be washed away by the gushing waters of Ganga or Brahmaputra. (Ladies Macbeth).
But the data is useful in analysing the real prospects of these alliances, taken that there is no change in the ground situation after 2010 or 2014. One argument stands good that elections for LS and Asembly differ on issues. But fortunately both Modi and Nitish made it a personal battle of sorts as in LS polls. And N is always after M. L is not considered in the contest as he is on baiL.
Now, let us make analysis based on ground level facts, not simply on figures.
1. AP Poll in May, 2014:
To come to some realistic assessment, let us consider AP Polls first. In March, 2014, I met a software giant in Freemont area in a hotel owned by an aspirant for MP ticket from TDP. It was in USA. These two were close to the present CM of AP. In the midst of discussion the MP aspirant asked me , " Are you confident of a TDP victory?". I said yes, if they contest as partners of NDA.My own asessment was 120 seats for NDA, that fell short by a few seats finally.He said an internal survey by the party projected 119 for YSRCP. There was anxiety in TDP cadres. In fact, the same number was sent as DM to me by someone close to an ex-TDP minister. Then I told them you could convince the chief not to leave BJP as 3% vote of BJP is core. 90% of them vote as they are real voters that do not change with winds. And majority fence sitters and swing voters turn to us and we can swing it in our favor. But I expressed skepticism about the surveys. The owner of the software firms told me he was the one who designed the first ever software for a famous psepholgist and was partner in his company for years before he shifted. He said psephology went wrong as they depended on limited sample size and correlated with many past trends.But they come out wrong due to many factors, one being pattern of change and change in issues. With growth in literacy, a voter looks beyond caste and wants more. But party surveys are conducted on the basis of collection of data from sincere workers in large numbers and are more reliable. Both were reluctant welcomers of BJP but both assured to talk to the chief. Later, one of them confirmed he had a long chat and would be in AP to convince him personally. All is well that ends well. It ended well.
My point here is as of now NDA is more confidant with its internal surveys as their partners are the same. Continuity helps. Pariwar is yet a loose combination and none of the leaders is sure who is where in the Chess Board. How can they checkmate the king? Further each leader has a reason of his own to attack Modi and there is no unified opposition. MSY is changing stance each other day. So, there is no possible joint survey and confusion reigns as of now. Hence, NDA has a clear upper hand. A favorable survey of the party gives an edge to them as message goes to fence sitters, swing voters and first time voters. It happened in AP. A quick intetnal survey suggested NDA could outsmart YSRCP and 110 seats was their prediction post alliance but I stood firm on 120 for influencing swing voters at my level. It paid dividends. What was my role there? Nothing, but a sincere change monger at State and Centre. Here too, my role is that. End of Macbeth and his ambition. The two ladies already ended their lives earlier than Macbeth.
2. Delhi Polls:
Most pollsters could not give a sweeping majority to AAP. Congress, shifting vote in toto, was not expected. Congress realised it was not strong anywhere, so shifted vote to defeat BJP. BJP dropped the hat in the middle after internal surveys predicted loss. So, Modi and Shah cleverly appeared that Modi was nowhere in picture and threw the mantle on Ms. Bedi. Modi had a long talk with her before announcing her as BJP face. What transpired, none knew. Local BJP leaders were up in arms and AAP became stronger than ever. If anyone knows Kejri personally, his basic trait is a split personality and before MCD polls, BJP tries to take advantage to cobble together the torn pieces and make a fitting comeback, if they learn a lesson. Here too, psephology went wrong, intetnal surveys helped Modi to withdraw as the face of Delhi polls. The fact is that Modi blew the conch for the upcoming Bihar polls in the first meeting.He is addressing second one close on heels suggests the confidence in NDA camp. Congress is struggling to decide and hence leadership is confined to slogan shouting in Delhi even as party is losing leaders and cadres in droves in states. Do they know the fate awaiting the top duo? Seems so. This is a second point that gives strength to my argument that NDA is on strong wicket. Modi pitching himself as main campaingner adds to my confidence.
3. ISSUES IN LS POLLS VERSUS ASSEMBLY POLLS:
Nothing changed on ground between LS polls and now. JDU lost heavily in LS polls. RJD too lost. Congress was nowhere. But now, these three have come together. So, the combined vote share must be more than that of NDA. But much water passed under the bridge since LS polls. Lalu is a mellowed man, because he has already been convicted and upper courts turning down the conviction are bleak. Further, there is no way out for him to save face unless one in his family occupies CM chair. Third, the party is well short of funds as none is ready to bet on him, as a convict on bail. Fourth, he does not believe that Nitish, a known adversary, will help him in any way. The relationship continues strained. So, Lalu will try his best to see that the result is fragmented. Veteran of many battles he knows where to hit that hurts Nitish most. If it is hung, he can still hang on as hard bargainer. So, this adds to the comfort zone of NDA.
As far as Congress is concerned, it dropped hat. None of the top leaders visited Bihar nor was there any sign of negotiations with others. The only way is again transferring votes in bulk to Nitish. Congress is wary of Nitish. He is another Modi, that never bends backwards to accomadate corrupt elements. So, RJD will be the best bet. But Lalu is cunning and self oriented. After winning, he may join NDA too, if accomadated. Moreover, the serious indictment of Congress by the Commission of Inquiry on Bhagalpur adds to Congress' discomfiture as it can no longer rake up 2002. With carrying the burden of 1984 Delhi and 1989 Bhagalpur riots, even Nitish finds it difficult to defend Congress . Unless Nitish turns Dhritarashtra, not seeing anything, he cant solve the riddle. One more point in the kitty of NDA.
4. NITISH ACTS OF POLITICAL SUICIDE:
By showing his real face vis a vis Modi, Nitish lost heavily in 2014. Without learning a lesson he insulted Jitan Ram Manjhi, who, in a short span carved out a political space for himself. Besides caste votes, he won hearts of middle classes, upper classes, upper castes and youth very cleverly. He projected himself as a martyr. BJP too aapeared aloof to the happenings in JDU and escaped unhurt. Both joined together. This is an additional vote of about 5% in specific constituencies for NDA. Increase in specific constituencies helps in gaining numbers without diluting the vote share. This is electoral arithmetic. Let us discuss in the next part.
5. SPECIAL PACKAGE :
The special package that comes with many benefits will send a message that Modi stands by his word and a clever campaign by NDA and Modi how special packages are better than special status will send positive signals. Modi's modus operendi is to deal with state specific subjects and announce infra and industry suited to each state or area. Power is his top priority and signals from other states where migrants from Bihar live and ruled by BJP will be helpful to build Modi image as a go_getter, who works for people. Even Nitish went on record saying teams of relief and Central Ministers reached and help reached Bihar even before the state woke up to real damage during earth quake time could be used by NDA that Modi would not play politics with opposition ruled states. "Just imagine if at both places, the same government works" will be the message. Huge hoardings with statements of Nitish in this reagard will be of immense help.
6. MODI'S GOOD GOVERNANCE MODEL:
Modi's USP is to address the basic problems faced by all sections while pursuing reforms. This is where he caught Congress with sore throats. When LAB amendments were being pursued by Modi government, Congress projected him as anti poor and crony capitalist. After Modi took the steam out of their campaign by almost agreeing to pass their own bill leaving it to states, Congress is lost for words except saying they have won. But with the fact that many states will pass bills that suit their needs, not different from NDA bill, Congress will have no answer. Either develop or remain backward, will be the message. Now, as they stall reforms, Congress will lose the other part of the war too as they are seen as anti growth. NDA is only bidding for time, as other programs of the government are showing ground result at micro level. Macro level growth takes time to percolate down to voters' level and 2019 is far off. Voters are satisfied that Modi doing something to improve their living conditions. A plus point for NDA.
7.Modi the strategist:
Universal Banking, Social Security, using festivals to spread goodwill message, improvement in roads, removing obsolete laws, Make In India, Fedral spirirt, Skill development to create jobs etc. are taking deep roots in large sections of population.
8. CORRUPTION:
Major issue during LS polls was corruption in high places. During fourteen months' of rule level of political corrpution has drastically come down pan India. Bureaucratic corruption is coming down slowly as many are circumspect of Modi ways. He strikes when one is complacent. Statesmenly. So, bureaucracy is realising the need to appear honest. Low level corruption is difficult to curb and we can only hope. Congress is shouting in the air, as it has neither issues nor tissues to wipe tears or wounds inflicted by NDA.
9. Communalism:
A shadow demon was on display in earlier polls that a BJP and a hardliner Hindu, Modi would divide the nation. To the utter dismay of Congress and allies they are more unified now and country is in safe hands.
10. Foreign Policy:
Modi made several moves on foreign policy to help the nation and the world around. Of significance to Bihar is the Bhutan, Nepal agreements, the Bangladesh bonhomie and power generation and supply to Bihar from neighboring nations.
11. Modi's persona:
Modi still stands tall in the view of majority Indians, as he not only appears sincere but also sincere to the core.
In a nutshell, NDA has a clear edge over any combination with the above and many underlining factors. I will not be surprised if NDA retains the seats it won in 2014.
CONTENTIOUS SEAT SHARING:
Seat distribution is almost complete. There are a few heartburns in the Pariwar camp. One is NCP, not being given its due share. They think they are votaries of Minority interests. Samajwadi Party was not accommodated. Nothing is heard from them. RJD and JDU sharing equal number of seats is, in one way, Lalu realising that both parties have no ground support in the state. It is a climb down for the party as JDU is a party that has less voter support than the RJD. One way, it can be said that it has depended on BJP grass root support in October, 2010 polls. In May 2014 it suffered the worst humiliation in the poll. RJD kept up its head high though it won only 4 seats. Congress, naturally being the only National Party that took on BJP alliance, retained its share. This might sound an absurd argument, as the total votes polled by these parties together, far exceeded the votes polled by the NDA in the LS polls also. The common assumption is that votes get automatically transferred to alliance partners on caste basis, religion basis and the good governance basis. It is unrealistic and specious as figures from 2005 February polls prove.
NDA may not face difficulty in sharing seats as they have already attempted a winning combination. Who will sacrifice seats to Manjhi faction and how many Muslim candidates the LJP, Manjhi faction and RSLP will each allot and what will be the percentage of seats BJP gives to the Minority Community plays a crucial factor. Issue will certainly bog down the seat sharing arrangement in the Pariwar camp, as in most of the seats that they are contesting (200 seats) both parties are almost unequally placed , with RJD certainly ahead of JDU at many places and which party will contest which seat will be the toughest task.
In contrast, BJP led NDA is equally spread over the state as they nurtured the whole state in the first term of Nitish Kumar and Nitish mostly won on solid support of BJP war strategy and vote share shifting to JDU. Figures again speak here. Additionally, BJP has the strongest leader that did not waver amidst revolt by Nitish and bomb blasts during the last polls. Most of the Biharis living in Maharashtra and Gujarat and now to certain extent in Delhi too (AK flip flops, corrupt netas and goodagiri, he is not able to control, today’s vulgar display of his name for Independence Day is another example), will be added strength of BJP. Congress lost the little advantage it had in 2014 due to its negative policies. It must be noted Bihar has a very high 58% of voters below 30 years age. (2011 census) and they know their politics well and do not follow traditional voting on the diktats of elders. Presence of large numbers of youth in Modi meetings is a proof of this.
CM CANDIDATE:
An argument is advanced that in the absence of a CM candidate announced early, BJP is at a loss. In all Assembly polls after May, 2014, BJP won without announcing a CM candidate. Only in Delhi, where they made a last minute candidate, they lost. Now, we know whether the argument stands good. And, without saying openly, BJP sent strong signals that SK Modi would lead the government. He is soft spoken, non-controversial, not an egoist like Nitish and a hard worker.
Pariwar announced Nitish as CM candidate. Natural incumbency will be there on a CM who has worked for ten years. And Nitish failed to cash in any pro-incumbency for him by his foolish acts. The first act was his distancing from NDA, with whose support only he could face UPA government’s discrimination and developed the state. Now, Bihar is feeling the pinch, as the governments who are in the opposition but have not opposed Modi personally are reaping benefits whereas Nitish is standing on his ego. Second blunder was not preventing bomb blasts in Modi meeting. It sent wrong signals, though he was not responsible for each action of his officers. The third blunder was making a mess out of Manjhi issue. The fourth and his fatal mistake that would see his nemesis was joining forces with Lalu, whom he abused in the harshest words. Fence sitters, swing voters, youth, women, upper caste Hindus, OBCs, excluding few , who suffered under Lalu would not vote for JDU where it would contest. And RJD cadres will revolt against the JDU, reason one being RJD will not rule the state, second reason they never forget the choicest abuses their leader has got, third many have ditched Lalu after his conviction and fourth Nitish is not believed by the people in general as he has backstabbed two leaders within one year. The moot question will be, “What is the guarantee he will not ditch us and join hands with BJP?” The rift between the two local leaders is not unknown. Compared to that local BJP leadership has much less grouse on Lalu than Nisish- led JDU. Sharad Yadav may not take kindly to joining hands with RJD, though he has never come out against the alliance openly. The ego war between him and Nitish is also not unknown. NDA too may face some revolt but the strong arm of Shah-Modi will be able to keep people under control. Already, Modi offered additional berths for Bihar in the Central cabinet. All is in the game. OROP and special package will certainly be a boost for Bihar and support will enhance, when compared to May, 2014.
OPINION POLLS DURING LOKSABHA POLLS:
Most of the opinion polls during Bihar assembly polls starting from February, 2005 till October 2010, (Three polls, in all) went way out of mark. Exit polls too could not predict correct picture. In the LS polls held in May 2014 too, the opinion polls were short by 100 seats to NDA and almost all exit polls, except Chanakya, gave short by 50-60 seats less to NDA. Reason, psephology in India did not change with the times. They go by standard caste preferences etc., Migration of people is not given due place. Influence of migrants on voters is not taken into account. Aspirations of people are not taken into account. Increase in literacy, access to education, better transportation facilities, increase in real wages, improvement of living standards of people over six decades are all ignored. I explained this in my September, 2013 blog on LS polls, which luckily turned out right. I predicted a landslide for BJP, on their own.
Ref:
http://chandravani2013.blogspot.in/2013/09/it-is-modi-all-way-analysis-part-1-can.html
Mine is not a science. In one way it is the sense of analysis of any issue that I developed since I was a youth. It is not psephology. It is PSEPHOLOGIC. I may too go wrong, as I never talk to any voter in these places. I mostly depend on contrasting analyses appearing in newspapers and an analysis of change in voter behaviour, new expectations every five years, exit of old generation, entry of new generation, increased migration, improvement in the real wages that people are able absorb a little inflation etc. Corruption in high echelons of power is almost eradicated and a transparent administration is in place. Slowly it is percolating down and more and more officers are being booked under stringent corruption loss. With Black Money Bill in the offing, disclosures increased and as Modi said, further generation of black money almost stopped. Steps are on to bring back the money stashed abroad. The spoil sport that Congress wanted to play to halt progress of nation and JDU joining hands with Congress will have tremendous impact on voter psyche. Any voter will not expect result in one year, when they have already waited for six decades and nine years, with nothing happening. It is absurd thinking that incumbency will be against Narendra Modi. Improved infra will certainly change voter behaviour further. Hope BJP achieves it soon.
CASTE FACTOR:
It is certain, in many parts of India, especially in states like UP, Bihar, AP etc., Caste plays major factor. But, there is a paradigm shift here too. The narrow category of castes was later Mandalised into SCs/STs, OBCs, Upper Castes etc., But even this conglomeration did not help, as, with passing of times some castes in these groupings have become rich keeping the other castes poor. So, there is neo-rich, neo- suppressive caste group in each category. So, unless a minute study of each caste group and their dependence on caste leaders is studied in detail, no analyst or psephologist can predict voter behaviour on caste basis. In religion, they were voting in groups for fear of persecution by the majority group in the constituency/state, mostly created by politicos. But this is also undergoing a paradigm shift, with people realising that they are being made scapegoats, better education, migration, better standards of living etc. We cannot live in 1947/48 perennially, nor can Congress keep people paranoid forever. I usually do not analyse polls on this basis as 1) I do not have full knowledge of caste groupings 2) I do not believe that in large sections, caste only makes the primary decision maker 3) I believe voter perception is changing faster than expected.
WHY JDU IS NOT A FORCE TO RECKON WITH, WHY CONGRESS FAILED TO CASH IN, WHY RJD LOST STEAM AND NDA MAY STILL REPEAT THE MAY,2014 POLLS
To come to a reasonable conclusion let us analyse position of each party since, February, 2005. That was when parties contested polls alone (RJD+CONGRESS together). Let me first give a few figures and then analyse what the figures mean.
Year n Month Party Seats Contested Seats won Votes polled % Efficiency of JDU n BJP
Feb, 2005 RJD 210 75 25.07 -----
JDU 138 55 14.55 25.36
INC 84 10 5.00 ------
Total % Votes 143 45.60
BJP 103 37 10.70 35.92
LJP 178 29 12.62
Total % votes 23.88
JDU and RJD replaced Congress in Bihar State. BJP was just making a foray in the electoral politics. JDU and BJP contested together and the efficiency of performance was better than that of JDU. At that stage Nitish had a chance to support RJD and Congress and could have been Dy. CM, but his ego and ambition then did not allow his conscience to share power with Lalu, whom he accused of “JUNGLE RAJ”. The fact still remains. But for the CM seat again, he allied with the same leader, who now, is a convicted criminal on bail, after allegations on him were proven. Nothing will be disparaging, more than his act of allying with Lalu, just to satisfy his ego. I think, youth might not recall, but 42% of voters who belonged old generations would recall this.
Another interesting facet of this election is the independents and others sharing a whopping 16.16% of votes that shifted to mainstream parties later.
October 2005
Year n Month Party Seats Contested Seats won Votes polled % Efficiency of JDU n BJP
Feb, 2005 RJD 175 54 23.45 -----
JDU 139 88 20.46 63.30
INC 51 9 6.09 ------
Total % Votes 151 50.79
BJP 102 55 15.65 57.92
LJP 203 10 11.10
Total % votes 65 26.94
Here RJD, despite almost, retaining its own vote share (it contested less seats), it lost heavily on seats. Reason might be its aligning with Congress might have turned against the party because of the alliance and it might have won its strongest seats. JDU gained 5.89% and BJP 4.68% votes. JDU might have gained in many seats because of aligning with BJP and BJP too might have got transfer of votes from JDU. But, the 1% incremental difference shows that voters preferred RJD or Congress where JDU allied with BJP, may be due to caste factors. So, Nitish became CM and Modi Dy. CM. The Government earned good name in first five years as they could bring back a semblance of normalcy in the law and order situation.
Independents and others scored 8.77%. So, almost 8% of vote shifted to other parties. Both times BSP scored little above 4% playing a spoiler role only.
October, 2010
RJD 168 22 18.84 -----
JDU 141 115 22.61 81.56
INC 243 4 8.38 ------
Total % Votes 141 49.83
BJP 102 91 16.46 89.22
LJP 203 10 11.10
Total % votes 101 26.94
JDU reached a peak of 22.61% in alliance with BJP which is spread across 141 seats. Now it is contesting 100 seats and BJP reached a peak of 16.46% in alliance with JDU, across 102 seats. It will contest 180+ seats now. This makes a difference as the voters who temporarily voted to JDU because of alliance in 39 seats will return and JDU voters will support BJP because of anger over Nitish. This is not a specious argument as May, 2014 proved, JDU base eroded heavily. RJD lost heavily and Congress gained a little. Congress has a vote share of 8.38% in 243 seats and now, it is contesting 40 seats. More than vote percentage, RJD lost many seats indicating that its vote is spread across 170+ seats it contested. Now it is contesting 100 seats. It will be onerous task to identify correct seats as many places NDA might have been in second place.
Votes can be transferred from one party to the other but votes in other constituencies cannot be shared. So, in October 2010, JDU+RJD+CONGRESS were strong in 141 seats BJP+LJP, with 23.21 % vote share are strong force in 101 seats, with 5% of votes contributed by JDU. Now, RLSP joined, Manjhi joined, who together can fill the gap of 5%. So, they are very strong in 101 seats at least.
May 2014 LS Polls:
These polls were fought with Modi Versus Nitish slogan and Bihar pride versus Gujarat pride. The Modi versus Nitish fight remains and the pride of Bihar is now contesting with Pride of India. You can imagine the resultant effect.
RJD+ 40 4 20.10 -----
JDU 40 2 15.80
INC+ 40 3 9.60 -----
Total % Votes 9 45.80
BJP+ 40 22 29.40
LJP 6 6.40
RSLP 3 3.00
Total % votes 31 38.80
An interesting scenario here is JDU lost almost 6% votes by disengaging itself from BJP. BJP gained a whopping 13% vote by getting rid of JDU. One argument can be advanced that Modi wave swept the state. It cannot be true. Naveen Patnaik withstood. KCR withstood. Mamata withstood. Siddaramaiah, Jayalalita withstood. These are not stronger or as much development oriented as Nitish, in his own words. He always compared Gujarat with Bihar and said Bihar was better developed. Why did he lose?
The only explanation is the voters outright rejected his ditching Modi in the middle of a development of the state. Grounds on which more voters would be angry on him increased now with his treatment of a Dalit leader Manjhi, his joing hands with the convict Lalu and the corrupt Congress. In the final analysis, more votes will shift from JDU to BJP this time than to RJD and few votes of RJD will shift to JDU this time. This changes the equation. Congress is not strong anywhere except 5 to 10 seats and the few votes they get in other seats will add nothing to the kitty. In 40 seats Congress can only win 3 to 7 seats as per past trends. RJD is strong only in 40 out of 243 seats, and may be 25 out of 100 seats. JDU is not in the reckoning as it lost heavily to BJP in LS polls and nothing on ground improved for them and Nitish is not considered as strong even as a Naveen Patnaik or KCR. It is end game Nitish.
By simple arithmetic, BJP that got 29.40% will snatch further 3% from JDU, 3% from Manjhi faction and LJP and RSLP will retain its vote share. That makes vote share of NDA 46.8% or say 47%. JDU will lose 5% to BJP, 5% to RJD (Net of mutual transfers.) and retains 7.80% and RJD will gain maximum 5% from JDU as the seats they contest will be weaker for JDU.(Net of mutual transfers). Congress share reduces to 4% because of the less number of seats it is contesting than in Feb, 2005, when it contested 84 seats and got 5%. That adds to 25.10+1.20+ 4.00+ 7.80 = 38.10%. (1.20 is NCP share).The swing from May, 2014 is more than 8.7% and it is anybody’s guess who wins more than 186 seats it has won in LS polls, the clear winner is NDA with more than 200 seats. No caste, religion, strategic voting or leadership strength of Nitish can beat this logic.
Added to this, in LS polls JDU stood at second place in only 4 places compared to 21 places by RJD and 7 places of INC (it being a national party). NDA stood second in 8 places. A little swing here and there will be great advantage to BJP and a little extent RJD but not certainly JDU. By conceding more seats to JDU than it can win RJD won its battle on Nitish, by ensuring that he would be nowhere to be seen in the Assembly and RJD would be trying to regain lost glory on the grave of JDU in future by being the main opposition to NDA. Logically and psepholgically too, it will be Modi all the way in Bihar.
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MY NEXT BLOG: A SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE PARTIES AND THE LEADERS AND THE CONCLUSION WHY IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR!
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