IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY-AN ANALYSIS

PART - 1 :CAN MODI WIN

Opinion polls on the possible scenario post 2014 elections give a thin edge to the BJP led NDA, ruling out a landslide to it despite the Modi factor. I call these as "Sham Polls". Alliances are yet to be worked out by both the Congress and the BJP. On its part the BJP is batting and betting for a clear majority on its own while the Congress has doubts of its reaching the triple digit mark. Hence, it is batting for alliances with all parties (including traditional rivals at state level). Their desperation is understandable as a strong anti incumbency undercurrent is palpable from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. Hence, Congress, in its hour of crisis, is trying to consolidate or polarise (to put in their own words) votes of a particular community for themselves or their potential allies, showing the demon of communal politics that might be played by BJP under the leadership of Modi. Will this work this time around?. Let us examine in minute detail. 

It is true, in India polls are won on loyalties of caste, religion, money and muscle power of the individual contestants and in many cases on local factors. Congress has cleverly exploited the "fear factor" all these decades to keep one particular section of voters under constant threat of a possible marginalisation of their communities under BJP and now, in the words of their stooge media, a highly polarising figure, Modi. A systematic campaign is unleashed on the leader and whosoever is seen joining hands or sharing dais with him,  by a media which is pliable to the ruling party, for reasons best known to them. The media campaign unleashed by the Congress on all that are close to Modi is such that even hard core BJP cadres started reacting with scepticism to the possibility of BJP under Modi really riding to power in 2014. A clinical analysis of all elections since 1952 till 2009 suggests that Congress was losing its foothold constantly across India despite projecting itself as protector of minorities, downtrodden and the hungry masses. Where did all this vote go? Let us examine it later.

First, let us see how far the opinion polls hold good in a highly diversified democracy like India and in a highly polarised atmosphere which is the own the creation of the Congress. During the 2009 elections results predicted by opinion polls and exit polls read as under.

                                                            Pre-poll surveyS

Agency                   Dates                                                                                    Result

CNN/IBN,ICDS       8Jan to 15 Sep.2009           UPA 215-235, NDA 165-185, others 125-135

Star-Nielson            5Mar to 17 Mar.2009          UPA 257(Cong.144),NDA -184, Others 96+

Star-Neilson            26Mar to 3 Apr.2009           UPA 203 9Cong155), NDA-191, Others -104+39+

Outlook-The Week   Mar-Apr 2009                    UPA 234 (Cong 144), NDA86, Others -112+

Times of India         March, 2009                       UPA 201 (Cong 146), NDA- 195, Others-147+

                                                               ExIt polls

CNN/IBN-

Dainik Bhaskar         13 May,2009                      UPA 185-205,NDa 165-185, Others 135-165

Star-Neilson                  -DO-                            UPA 199, NDA 196, Others 136

India TV-C-Voter          -DO-                            UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195, Others 105-121

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PART 2: WHY CONGRESS MIGHT LOSE HEAVILY IN 2014

  

The UPA got 262 seats, still short of a simple majority and NDA got 159 seats. No poll, Pre or exit came anywhere nearer the reality even though the pre-poll survey was held just before to the election dates and exit poll, as usual, after the polls. What the brightest minds, as Media projects them, could not predict was the undercurrent of the middle class sentiment about the robust economic growth during the five year period of UPA 1 rule, the near absence of any major scams on the lines of BOFORS and the veiled honesty of the PM. Added to all this was the disruptive politics played by the Communists and the botched up vote- for-cash scam on which the BJP could not cash in, with a hostile media playing truant and a tried and tired leader of the BJP being projected as PM, though he deserves all the respect of an honest leader who helped the BJP grow by leaps and bounds.

This time around, it is a different story. BJP has got a young,dynamic and new face as its PM candidate. He is known to be incorruptible and lauded by the world press so. His no-nonsense approach, his firm grip on administration and governance ,and his relentless work in his own state to develop it as role model  won him laurels from the middle classes and upper classes as well. His oratory skills are an added advantage. He connects to the masses directly. Despite all the calumny spread by his rivals, the fact that 31% of  votes of a particular community were polled by him in 2012 in his state stands him in good stead in the eyes of minorities too. Here, the Congress game plan of polarising minority votes en bloc might fail horribly as sections of these communities are highly educated now and their wisdom in rejecting a non-performing and corrupt administration can not be ruled out. So, votes of the middle and upper classes of these communities are certain to be divided between the BJP, Congress and few regional parties who did a good job at governance like Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and Jayalalitha in Tamilnadu. 

The second factor that works totally against the UPA 2 is the slowing growth rate, absence of employment opportunities, institutionalised corruption in almost all Congress ruled states and Union Governments, the near non-corrupt image the non-Congress CM s built for themselves and the rising cost of living with no corresponding increase in real wages. Added to this the middle classes are now more restless about an infrastructure comparable to Europe, China and USA. This is partly because of their increased exposure to these countries through their own personal experience, by word of mouth or the information dissemination through internet and media. Total absence of any modernization in infrastructure despite huge investments being made by the governments is apparent and the corruption in these sectors is so monumental to escape their attention. So, it is a fait accompli that middle class, educated voters vote en masse against the ruling dispensation and with a strong leader in the opposite camp, it is anybody's guess to whom majority of  these votes go.  The third or fourth fronts are already discounted by these classes in view of their past experience and the absence of a credible,strong and single leader for these fronts adds to their disadvantage. So, the possibility of majority vote of these sections going to Modi - led BJP is near certain. There is a misnomer that middle classes are usually apathetic to voting and hence, the possibility of Modi getting substantial numbers to polling booths is remote. The strong aversion to the ruling dispensation, this time around, will see more voters from these sections queueing up in front of polling booths . The scenario is also changing fast as proved by the voting patterns I am going to give since 1952 election.  

That leaves the highly illiterate, poor and orthodox voters who form a major chunk of the total voters. It is a fact these voters are swayed easily by the sops the parties offer on the eve of elections. Added to this the caste, community and religious leaders have a vice like grip on these voters and pattern of voters of a particular religion or caste voting en bloc to a candidate as dictated by their leaders is not uncommon. It is here the Congress wants to play its cards right by entering into alliances with the regional strong leaders like KCR and Jagan in AP, Nitish in Bihar or BSP/SP or BSP+SP in UP etc., Left in West Bengal or if possible Mamata+Left there. How far this strategy pays dividends is to be analysed carefully. 

Two factors work here. If there is no strong anti-incumbency wave as in 2009 against the ruling party, these alliances work well. If there is a strong incumbency and there is no strong leader in the opposition camp too, alliances work. In the present scenario it is a double blow to the Congress. They have two negatives. There is a very strong anti-incumbency against Congress in almost all states and there is a very strong leader in the opposition camp who can sway the voters easily. So, if other parties enter into alliance with the Congress there is every possibility that not only the Congress loses but they may too lose their voter base, if the strong currents in favour of Modi turn into a storm. These parties too assess their strengths and weaknesses vis-a-vis Modi and may shy away from Congress if only to retain their base in their states. They may, instead play safe to contest alone thus giving BJP an edge in polls by retaining their strong vote banks in tact. This is a possibility as these parties know well the strong anti-currents the Congress is facing today. Contesting alone, it will be a pipe dream for Congress in many states to take on a resurgent BJP under a strong united leadership. Further, each of these regional leaders nurture their individual ambition to be PM, even if for few months. This leaves bitterness in these alliances as no one leader has a pan India mass base as the Congress supremo or an Advani or a Modi.

Then the issue of flagship schemes like FSB and LAB remains. With the given limited time for elections and the many intricacies involved in the schemes and the fact that many states already have subsidized food grain schemes in their states, together make it difficult for Congress to take them to the grass roots or to fight the incumbency factor in many states, dangling these schemes as a bait. THE GENERAL RISE IN COST OF LIVING AND INCREASING ASPIRATIONS OF MASSES FOR A BETTER LIFE ADD TO THE DISCOMFITURE OF THE RULING PARTY. It should be noted that majority of big states are ruled by non-congress parties presently. Here cadre base of Congress has thinned over the years. In at least three states, Delhi, AP and Rajasthan, where Congress is ruling, people are totally disillusioned with the present governments. That leaves only Karnataka where again strategic alliances might help BJP and Maharashtra where the picture is unclear. On the other hand, the stock of BJP in the states being ruled by them is intact. They built up strong cadres over the years.

The game plan of Congress to win both sides in AP by vertically dividing the state into two parts without doing much home work boomeranged and if the present scenario is unresolved, no party would be ready to be in alliance with Congress in the state. BJP has, on the other hand almost formalised  a deal with TDP, which many in AP feel is a good homecoming for TDP as they have never pardoned CBN leaving NDA in a huff. In other states too strong regional parties are sending the right signals to the NDA and this coupled with Modi's charm will certainly help BJP.

On the whole, the scenario for BJP under Modi is quite encouraging. But, will he be able to muster enough strength of 300+ seats along with allies is a question that haunts many a BJP supporter. For this we may have to go back to the voting patterns in the country since 1952. The patterns show a clear trend. Whether, a repetition of the trend helps BJP or Modi s a big question.

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PART 3: POLLING TRENDS SINCE 1952 FOR THE GOP  VS OTHER PARTIES:

In the 1952 elections Congress polled 44.99% of the votes polled across the country and secured 364 seats out of the 489 seats. More than 40 parties contested polls. Socialist Party stood a far second and Communists and Bharatiya Janasangh with a little over 3% vote share stood third and fourth. Polity was divided across the country in India during the first election itself, with a lot of non serious parties fighting elections. Congress securing less than 50% of vote share immediately after independence is a significant factor to be reckoned when we talk about the sharp divisions in the electorate in India.

In the 1957 elections Congress repeated the feat by securing 47.77% of total votes polled and 371 seats out of 490 seats. Independents secured 19% of the vote share, a significant factor to be reckoned. Socialist party retained its vote share while Janasangh secured almost 3% more than earlier elections.

In the 1962 general elections the vote share of Congress declined to 44.72% and it saw rise of regional forces like the DMK and Akali Dal and others and significant gains were recorded by the communists and Swatantra Party while Janasangh retained its share of vote. The decline of Congress as a national force started here though subsequent swings in its fortunes were seen later for various reasons.

In the 1967 election, which saw a disastrous war in October 1962 with China, demise of Nehru and Shastri, two Prime Ministers in the interim,Congress retained power. But these elections saw Congress mauled electorally though it retained majority with 283 seats out of 520. This election saw many states elect non-congress governments. With  two factions led by Indira Gandhi and Morarji Desai slugging it out, Indira Gandhi was expelled from the party when she formed the Congress (I) and led the first minority government in 1969 supported by CPI.

But unwilling to run a minority government Indira declared mid term elections in 1971 and rode her party to power with a landslide of 352 seats against 283 in the earlier election. She took bold decisions like war on Pakistan to liberate East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. This is  significant factor to be reckoned with, as charisma of a leader could win elections for a party struggling to keep its vote share. Congress increased its vote share to 43.68% despite many regional parties entering the fray and making the elections more divisive. BJP can hope to rewrite history by securing a similar vote share riding on the incumbency factor and charisma of its leader.

But the enormous economic cost of the war and refugee influx from Bangladesh and non-cooperation by USA and other world countries led India to its worst economic doom during this phase. Added to this the Allahabad High Court set aside her election in 1975. She declared emergency, arrested all dissenting voices and extended the term of Parliament. This is when strong anti-incumbency against the Congress swept the country, similar to the one we are seeing today. 

For the first time in 1977, Congress was routed totally in elections and the newly formed Janata Party, with no strong leader to represent it won 51.89% of popular vote and 345 seats. A loose conglomerate of individual leaders having personal ambitions, the Janata Party died a natural death in 1980 with internal dissensions. In 1977 Congress fought elections on pre-poll alliances and on its own secured a meagre 34.52% of votes. Besides internal dissensions the Janata Party Government of the day appointed a commission of inquiry into the lapses during Emergency and a witch hunt was unleashed on her during the period by which she gained tremendous amount of sympathy across the country. This is significant as the Congress is repeating the same mistake in case of Modi, by which his sympathy vote is adding by the day among fence-sitters and this might be the game changer for BJP. Congress did not learn lessons from history even though some old leaders leaders of those days still continue to hold senior positions in the party. The reason might be that a sustained effort is being made from within the party to see the end of the road to the party in these elections.

In 1980 when Janata Party Government fell due to internal dissensions, Indira rode a wave of sympathy against the witch hunt by opposition leaders and won a landslide in alliance with smaller parties. Congress on its own secured simple majority with 286 seats. The vote share of Congress, though,  dipped further as it fought in alliance with smaller parties.

In 1984, after assassination of Indira, in the elections Congress secured 414 seats, securing 49.14% of votes. The TDP formed by NTR was the only party that stood the storm of sympathy wave and secured 30 seats in AP becoming the main opposition in Lok Sabha. Again, it is a watershed in Indian democracy. NTR proved how a non-corrupt leader with oratory skills to reach the common man can do to withstand a storm caused by sympathy wave. This is a very significant factor we should reckon in  the 2014 elections. No vote banks were necessary when it is sympathy, clean image and efficiency. In 2014, Modi is secure on both counts. Sympathy vote because of the constant hounding by Congress and media and his own added charisma.

The 1989 elections saw a reversal of fortunes for the congress that secured 197 seats with 39.53% vote share. The period between 1989 and 1991 saw a churning in Indian politics with faction leaders of various parties fighting for PM post and a mid term election was held in 1991. 

The 1991 elections were held in two phases. First before the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in which Congress fared very poorly and post assassination when Congress swept polls but still got only 244 seats out of 545 with 35.66% vote share. This election saw the phenomenal rise of BJP which secured 120 seats with 20.04% vote share despite sympathy wave due to Rajiv's death. 

Post 1991 the Congress could manage to run a minority government for full five years under the able leadership of Mr.P.V.Narasimha Rao, the first Prime Minister from Congress from non-Nehru family to rule for five years with full authority and without outside interference. Here too we have to see how an effective leader can come out of the shadows of the dynasty and still rule the nation efficiently. Many voters voting in 2014 might be knowing the 1991-96 phase and the present leadership and compare both. This will be an additional scoring point for BJP.

In 1996, the BJP led the chart with 161 seats and the Congress stood second with 140 seats. Though A.B.Vajpayee formed the government, it could not muster enough support to cobble up a stable alliance and he resigned without facing Parliament. Congress played second fiddle to Deve Gowda and allowed him top form the United Front Government.After much real politic played by the Congress the UF Government fell in 1998 and fresh elections were held. Though A.B.Vjpayee formed Government of NDA, it lasted few months and fresh elections were held  in end 1999. Congress that secured 28.80% vote share in 1996 dropped further to 25.82% in 1998.

During 1999 elections, Congress, though regaining the 28.80% vote share lost power to NDA which ruled for five years with outside support from TDP. 

In 2004 BJP lost power to the Congress led UPA alliance though it retained its vote share of 1999. The first term of UPA saw India grow phenomenally due to many factors despite lack of  efficient delivery system of the government and riding on the back of middle class support it retained power in 2009. 

The period from 2009 to 2013 saw the gradual decline of morality in public life with many scandals involving top leaders of ruling alliance coming out into the open. We stand now at the crossroads with the nation looking for change and Modi emerging as the undisputed leader of change mongers. 

If we observe the voting percentage patterns, more number of people got voting rights since 1952 due to reduction in age to 18 years for voting. The percentage of voting substantially increased from 44.77% in 1952 to 59.7% in 2009. When strong anti incumbency was discernible it climbed up to 63%.

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PART 4: IT WILL BE  A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR MODI

The analysis of various elections throws up significant points.

1. The Congress vote share dropped significantly from 49% in 1957 to 28% in the recent polls. The BJP gained substantially. From a meagre 3% vote in 1952 as Jana Sangh it could climb up to 23+% in 2004 but dropped slightly to 19% in 2009. Now, its share of vote is bound to increase due to factors mentioned supra.

2. When a strong leader that can enthuse own party cadres and masses alike is leading a party, the party can win a land slide as proved in 1971 elections by Indira Gandhi or 1984 elections when NTR won against a strong wave of sympathy for congress.

3. When a strong leader is haunted and hounded by rivals and media alike the sympathy generated for the leader surpasses all other considerations, as it did to Indira Gandhi in 1980.

4. The Congress stock among voters is down constantly since 1952 and it is now dependent extensively on its regional allies. These allies might not bet on a declining party forever and might ditch it at the right moment.

Let us apply these factors in the present elections. That Modi is as good as or a better leader that can connect to masses, than Indira Gandhi need not be stressed. The very fact that he retained power in his state for three consecutive elections despite the calumny spread by rivals and  still continues to be  the most revered leader in his state speaks volumes about his leadership qualities.

Till 2012, when he was re elected as CM of Gujarat for a third time, he was not known by many voters outside his own state. But once his name started making rounds as PM candidate of BJP, a systematic campaign was unleashed by the GOP through select media houses about the 2002 riots. In their over enthusiasm to stop him in his tracks even before the declaration as PM candidate, the Congress unleashed a no holds barred mudslinging against the leader. This added to the image of Modi. The man whose name was till then not known to many voters in the country has now become a house hold name in the whole nation. The congress discomfiture at the sudden and unexpected declaration of Modi saw its leaders running for cover and they tried to pit one leader of BJP against the other. The ultimate result was BJP emerged stronger and more united now. 

Congress, in its effort to play down the effect of Modi started talking Modi, singing Modi, dancing Modi and finally they forgot that they are a national party with a leader whose name they forgot! Alas! The situation was brought upon them by their own ineptness of handling a strong adversary. Once, Modi's name started doing rounds in the country regional channels picked up the opportunity and started singing praises of Modi. So now his clout with voters has doubled and is adding by the day. Not only that, the sympathy factor is adding up by the day with constant bashing of Modi by Congress leaders and leaders of other parties alike. Unable to digest his popularity Congress is rubbing salt on its own wounds by constantly hounding his close associates, that is increasing his popularity multi fold. 

In a way, Modi is not doing that much to improve his own image among voters as the inept Congress leaders are doing for him. It is no surprise, therefore, if he repeats a 1980 by Indira Gandhi, a 1983 by NTR or a 1984 by Rajiv Gandhi. Whatever, it is, it is going to be a landslide victory for Modi led BJP in 2014. The writing on the wall is clear! If he wins elections to Lok Sabha once, it can be reckoned as the last rites of the Grand Old Party forever!

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are personal opinions of the blogger and not taken from any source. As per the data quoted supra, the blogger collected it from various web-sites and the authenticity of the whole or part of the data can not vouched as totally correct by the blogger.